Tomorrow

Jane wells is going to be in front of a bank Indy mac all of monday

I’m outside IndyMac headquarters all day Monday (or should I say IndyMac Bank FSB), as every depositor in America watches to see what happens when a big bank fails and the FDIC comes in to take over.

With the signing of the bank bill by the senate, and the Fanny Freddy.

IndyMac, the 3rd largest failure ever. In the Heart of "No doc, interest only, buy a home flip it in a year make money land."california. Huge Alt A book. Also Plenty of help from Congress comming out saying "They are fine.Everybody pay no attention to the man behind the courtain".... Congress.... Sometimes.

Emotions seem mixed.

The Bears Seem so Manic. They were just in full Orgasm on friday. There is a little disbelief, and even a little vengeance/bitterness right now.

Gartman has a Thesis, which is backed up by ducati, that "all the waiters that leveraged themselves, and announced to the world that they were the next RealEstate Tycoons, have all been forclosed on by now. Seems True, if you were just some guy putting new home depo cabinets in a house, and fliping them every 3 months, you went under 6 months ago.

One of the Economic thesis' is that "Small Buisness" is strong. By this I think they mean the Millions of illegal 1099 contractors that buisness hire to replace employees, so that they don't have to pay healthcare.

These and many other small Contractors, have Alt-A mortgages. BESIDES THE BREADLINES, PEOPLE Roaming the country searching, for work jumping off boxcars, and the jode family, who after the dust covered their fields and they couldn't plant anything..........
Besides these people.... There are some Legitamate homeowners who have Alt-a mortgages who will pay them.

I'm not dismissing the negative impact of this problem. But When I Read "Bank Implode-O-Meter", I start feeling like this is a Game show. With the 40% out of many of the banks. It starts feeling Cooked in. But again, the stocks show No stregnth, and for the most part, look like every bank in this country is going to '1'. With no access to Capital markets. As they implode, it should be enough to take most of our equity accounts as well.

I heard people start talking about insurance on equities, and their bank accounts. This sounds like just before the january low.

I was checking CD rates today, seemed like for such desparate banks, they would be offering more than 3.5%. City WM and WB are SKREWED, they won't be financing a bathroom remodel till 2011, and they have yet to cut their dividend.

But again, The Mantra in the markets, is "The Regional banks will go the same way as the uninsured Savings and loans did in the 1990's". Above is the chart with the 1990 bank and thrift failures. At the Apex of the failures, the year of the market decline. If you use this model, and assume that as in 1990 we will have say 3x as many, at the apex of the curve as the year before, and say 6X as many as 2 years before. We will be looking at a Grand total of 9 failures. this year.... One could suppose as many as 12.

That is it, I'm Buying a Firearm, Digging a massive hole in the back yard, loading it with gold, and Filling it full of MRE's.

FITB
Fith third bank

This is the 1990 cycle, Roughly a 50% haircut. Banks exploding everywhere, Financial Ruin, Nobody will every borrow to buy a house(I think, I've heard this before.)FITB. This cycle, this is an 90% collapse. I understand, Yes there is a Secular Top in "financials" Some additional "Pain" should be felt. all they did was cut their dividend. They are trading like a sub prime Mortgage lender.

I'll Admit, I play this as a Day trading Vehicle, and haven't even listened to an earnings call.... or looked at their book.

But it draws me to, Either, This is so Over done, or Free Market Capitalism is done.

But Sentiment, Everyone is Calling a Bottom in financials, Watch the Contrarians come out with thornburg, saying "ooop, that is it, the fear is in, buy the dip"

Umn....

But again, These stocks are broken, and little help or hope.... or slope of hope.

In japan, the banks Rallied, and then Rolled back over.