this is a great podcast.
Teresa laughs through it all, Basically about how staged all this is. How every time it's different and every time it's the same.
It's long but worth your time.
another sector rotation model. And she points out that its obvious that financial are about to bottom, if they havn't already. at least till recession number 2.
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Teresa Lo
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2 comments:
I haven't been reading your blog very long. Noticed you're talking about 2 recessions. Can you elaborate on that?
Thanks in advance.
Hi, Tradewell.
Let me qualify that I'm a lunatic, I'm not an economist, not a financial professional... Other than Trading.
But, We are in a Super-Cycle. A once every 30 or 100 year event.
True Bear markets Usually bottom a year and a half after the "Top" in the market. The only exceptions are "Mini Bears"- which involve Market Crashes. I guess it could be different this time.
They also involve Several Recessions. A Series of say 3 or 6 Recessions.
My broader Thesis is that overall what we will have a "Depression", But due to how the Government manipulates our currency and the Data. We will Experience it as a series of recessions over 5 years, or so(that is my current supposition).
Which is what a Bear market is... A depression. We just don't like to use that word since the 1930's.
Really, we will go through one long depression, and be stuck between 10-13K on the DOW for that period. The lowest part will be sometime q4 2008- Q2 2009.
The great Examples of "REAL BEAR MARKETS" are 1945-50, and 1973-1983.
Sometimes when people talk about bear markets they talk about "Declining markets", but a good Bear market goes on Forever, Usually commodites go Crazy. And are hell to Trade.
I'll post a chart of "Recessions" and if you use some of your own charts and look at the periods I've talked about.
I hope I have answered your questions.
I only do this blog to show my personal sentiment. and try and give people some idea of how I trade.
The big problem is, I'm tired... and unfortunately sometimes I'm just banging my keyboard in a haze of exhaustion.
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