There is some guy on saying "We are only half way there, retail investors need to get comfortable being short." we are only half way there.
Right... Citigroup at 7? JPM at 15? GS at 80? LEH at 7? WM at 1.50? KEY?5 BAC at 15? MER 12?
The DOW at 7k? SPX at 900......
OR... is that guy FULL OF SHIT, Talking his book.... and going to lose his shirt.
SO.... these guys talk about the Lack of transparency..... it just shows the ignorance... Problem is that Nobody knows the value of Credit, in a declining economy...... It just is what ever the losses are this quarter.... you can model it out all you want.... but there are way to many variables.
AND BTW SOCIAL SCIENTISTS(Economists) have no idea how to MODEL. I mean shit.. they can't even calculate inflation.
AGAIN.... I'm offended constantly by the SHEAR IGNORANCE OF Economists... as they DELUDE THEMSELVES INTO thinking they know anything about science.... THE LAST STEPT IN Scientific method is to Draw a Conclusion....
EVERY TIME THEY SAY "on one hand... and on the other", it offends the Great Minds of Western Thought.
The other interesting thing, is how People don't factor in how Fluid and dynamic Markets are.... They are so resilient... and like I pointed out, the other day... all most of America needs to do to Pay the morgage is stop eating potato chips and fudrukers... and there you go.. $10 a day for 30 days, is $300 tward a morgage. Cut you driving in half... there is another $300.
AND MER droping those CDO's at distressed prices.... How is that for a sign of capitulation in financials.....
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Some asshole
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4 comments:
I missed your graphs and comments yesterday. I hope your job is going well.
Good to have you back after/before hours at least.
Economists are pseudo-scientists-- no question-- and the most dangerous thing is when they act like it's hard science; that is when all the damage is done. Taleb's Black Swan is the definitive work on that issue.
We trust that economists have "fixed" the system and we want to believe that they have prevented catastrophes, but this is a belief in a fantasy just to make us feel good.
As for the market: be careful, folks are getting disinterested in it, which is worse than angry.
One other thing: the SPY hit the $80's in 2003, and most of that was buyer's strike. it was not "the shorts" or "the naked shorts"; it was a lack of confidence in the markets coupled with a lack of earnings.
I'm not saying we'll see $89, but $105 is a distinct possibility. Certainly $105 is just as likely in the next 30 months than $145.
I'm not saying we are going to the moon....
and in the next 6 months probably a little lower... is what I "think".
We have to remember .. There is an inflation premium in markets...
When you look at 2003 vs 2008... remmeber Potato chips were $1.50 back then, and are $3.00 now.
so the magnitued of profit margins are larger...
On a 3 month time scale, you can look at Technical support... But it's hard to do that in Decade long time frames.... that is where it becomes "big Purple Crayons"
Futures look up, so maybe a sell off in the first hours... then look for that up wave... Then a sell off... then be ready to jump....
Crude is down. I'd watch for a move to 121... and I'd say... "game on"
Also... to drone on...
this isn't 2003 where we are afraid of global terrorists.. and unsure about the response to "Cowboy diplomicy"..
It's not 1974, or 1929, 1990, 1982... Things Rhyme.. not repeat.
90 was not like 82... Things are always the same... and yet different.
ON the job.. I only checked the market 4 times... at the open, an hour in.. Mid day.. and at the close.....
It was so nice......
I'd look for today to be a Neutral day...
maybe build some confidence into GDP... then some fear at NFP
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