Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

the skf in premarket

Looks like it has moved into a faster trade channel Premarket the stocks look GRIM. Seems like it has moved into it's 3rd wave.

15 comments:

tradewell said...

I like your music.

What does the 3rd wave mean?

Don't know what to do this morning. Again afraid to be long or short (with new positions; OK with existing ones).

Eric said...

third wave means we are accelerating..... It means that more people are adopting a trend.

we have a nice bounce right now as uncle ben is talking... I think it is a good chance to hit the skf when it breaks down.

I think Clearing shorts at 40 some on Vix is going to be a plan.

I'm having a hard time geting data.

tradewell said...

beard: Inflation to rise, and oil in tight supply.

Ouch.

Eric said...

Right now I like the SKF at about 200 maybe even 204
It looks to break to the downside.

if my charts are even vaguly reasonable.

The vix spike into the 30's looks to create a bounce(which is probably shortable). and the Vix is "downtrending." when the Vix starts uptrending. time to make a short trade.

We haven't even hit 10700 yet I doubt any nearterm support till then

Eric said...

I exicuted a trade when we got to the 193 level...

Oil liquidating makes me nervous....

seems like an exit at 192 would be a good idea.

tradewell said...

Oil broke. Must rally some!

Eric said...

It's dangerous... I feel like I'm chasing a bank trade.. and I'm the last guy to the Water fountain.

tradewell said...

So you're shorting this bounce or will it last for a few days?

I exited SLW and covered HRB, just in time. Whew. Suddenly tired.

tradewell said...

I'd get out and wait

Eric said...

we should see some resistance here at 11K. It's all about the 192 level in the skf, if it breaks we will rally back up....

Sentiment was very negative this morning....

Eric said...

that 11K and 1220 level was important, and we had to retest it...
we also had to gap fade, and retest the trade channel

Oil guys will be all over oil at 136.

it's still a "Buy the dip" in oil

this is a great place to short and get out if we get back to 11k....

But D-fence wins the game. That is the first Weakness we have seen in Months. But 11k broke down so fast.
This market wants to be at 10500

here I am trying to convince myself
:)

tradewell said...

Theoretically oil breaking down should help. If we don't close strongly, I'll short the cubes.

FSLR is behaving today :)

Eric said...

Wow.... well here is some short covering.

tradewell said...

HOW did Bernanke manage to scare just about everyone? Amazing, he's got a gift.

Eric said...

This makes me Feel Very good...
(like we arn't going to crash)

I like when 2 trends line up.

If we get "Buy the Dip" in Oil,

followed by "buy the Short" in financials"
(maybe)

Followed by some bear euphoria in the next few days...
and some real fear. or even a lockup in the credit system.

some Oil talk about $200 after hitting 150.

we can make an important low.

I'll give you another one... we need the 30 year bond to move when we make that "Fear trade" when the 10 and 30 start moving.... that is when there is "Terror".

That the dollar looks so Bearish, and that oil looks so bullish.
and gold... it just says such nasty stuff.

I have an upside target of 123.5 roughly, then I expect they will try and sell it into the close.

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