Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Thursday, July 17, 2008

sentiment july 18

from the blog stats, referring Google searches"

"sprint cell phone"

"contrary financial blog"

"Breakouts tomorrow"

"Comon baby"
(this reminds me... because I put that pappa bear on the blog, I get some of..."those searches" (not that there is anything wrong with that))

"double long XLF"

"Idiot wave".... I bet I'm the number one idiot wave site soon.

I've had it... no more...... I umn..... I have regular readers these days....

HI!!!... Umn I'm sorry for my .... Understand... I'm tired, market has me exhausted some times... I forget to spell check... the more exhausted I am, the more my idiosyncrasies get to me... I wish I was more "polished for you"

I may have to rename this blog the number one idiot wave site....

Idiot waver signing off.....(I that's just not going to happen)

6 comments:

Tony said...

Eric, thanks for the heads up on my comments about the market bottom a couple days ago. I did see the post.

I got out of DUG ten days ago--- damn I knew that thesis was right, I just didn't have the balls to hang with it.

I did close out all my shorts, except FXP, oh well.

I've been crazy busy at work and have had to set up trades after hours and in the mornings, which never works very well. Most of them never get triggered, especially when the market opens up like it has. (Some day I'll grow a pair and quit my job.)

I think there will be a retracement and maybe I can open up a couple more long positions. TK was talking about MU tonight and I've been thinking that tech was going to lead any sustained rally... or even a small bear market rally.

Another one I've been watching is TSM (again). I've made some coin on this in the past and it looks like a buy right now. The graph is a little deceiving because it just went ex-dividend for 49 cents (what stocks pays a yearly div in July???!!!) so the nice bottom and upward triangle is not seen very well... but it's there. Also, there was nice capitulation spike on the ex-div date. It should retrace back to $10.10 Fri or Mon. and then this baby can move 10% over the next couple weeks if the techs start smoking.


Thanks again for the heads up!!!

Tony said...

Another one forming a nice base on some support is HCBK. It's bouncing on it's 180-day MA and it is one of the few financials that has held up above it's 180-day MA this year. If financials are going to recover this one should do well.

Do you ever hedge long positions in individual stocks by buying short indexes? For instance, buy HCBK, but buy a little SKF to hedge it. I've never done it, but I was thinking about it. Is it just plain stupid? I guess options are used the same way.

Eric said...

I'd suggest everything will rally for the month.. except materials and energy.

careful with tech, it's against sector rotation if you notice after hours, if they miss.. It gets Killed!!

It's called hedging. Sometimes its a good way to go if your unsure of your position. and if it's an index and you have an out performer it's a good way to go...

But... the pro's do it this way. buy puts when we are up. sell them when we are down. With the increased Vix, you get a premium on top of the.. Value.

I'm still working out bugs in my systems. But... when we hit the near term lows. I think buying stock is best, then options when we bounce.(I'd suspect I'm just a slow coach on this)

I'm still regretting the "B" word... Lets say near term low... We still have the "X-mas isn't going to happen trade"

This life sucks sometimes, Work out your systems, wait for a bull market, take a 2 week vacation. or hiatus or something... see if it works for you.

That InvivoAnalytics system, looks like it "Rocks", and is a more passive swing trade system. I would think it would work really well for someone who "works".

Seriously go through it with some vigor, this weekend, seems like so many great swing trades. and many great ideas. If I wasn't aggressively playing the "Bank" lotto. It seems like a good way to go... and less stress.

Even better with some technical knowledge, finding low risk entry points for the stocks could make it even more profitable.

And Teresa is so SMART, it kills me.

I'm glad somethings are working, It's been a LONG month and a half. of "just be short"

Eric said...

so.... Watch that sentiment chart.... and keep asking yourself "Where are we"... The banks jut hit Terror, and maybe discouragement. and following that we will get some... What I'm saying is we are building a base... but it's very trade able... and I suspect many will range trade... So again... if you want to play them... just try and catch the third waves, and don't top tick. Keep it simple, and just make money. Always more opportunities, you are never missing out.

And.... After some summer relief on oil prices... they will probably go up again... some say to new highs.. This could take us to your 9.5k target.

Eric said...

Also, One thing that helped me on tuesday. When I was foolishly Suspect of capitulation was when you asked about how the dollar had become stronger. That was Really Key, and something that nagged at me for hours, about "had we had some form of Capitulation.?"

so, thank you, BTW. Even I get a little Caught up in it.

Eric said...

Damn, I can Barely form a sentence.

When you asked about "how the Dollar was stronger?"

That question was an important Clue about capitulation for me. Of course that my Stream from my provider Locked up. That should have been a BIG Clue.

That was what I was getting at, And Thank You.

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