This is one of those Teach what you need to learn.
There are 3 rotations... Ok probably more....
(I did just notice I've been saying Seculer(I think))
Seasonal Rotations,
Cyclical,
Secular.
OK, Seasonal trends are yearly trends. Tech strong in august, oil strong from feb-july. Refiners from july through august or so.
Cyclical trends, are based on the business cycle 4-10 year cycles, into and out of Recessions.
Secular Trends, Every 20-40 years we switch from one secular trend to another. Tech 1970 through 2000, Finance from 1980-2006, Materials from 2000-2020? they overlap, they get manic and go bubble.
But each trend maintains for the most part..... Like I say... I'm wrong a lot, but People keep talking about Tech leading the market.... well, I could suggest that maybe this is 2000 thinking, but.... let's look at the Secular trend... Is it Tech? are we buying all new types of computers since 2000 that are blowing our minds... or is it the same stuff since 2000?
what is the Secular trend..??? of course it's materials... maybe you can get a thesis going that materials can lead us out..... But.
The cyclical trend is that tech will start outperforming.... After the economy turns.... not before...
Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.
J. P. Morgan
Saturday, July 19, 2008
Sector rotation
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