My counter Thesis on the banks

That Idiot Cramer was out all week Banging down the banks... I'm sure some "wink wink" friend from wall street, let him in on this one. Get this, I fell asleep, and woke up and he was talking. " I've been saving this for weeks. because I WOULDN'T BANG THE BANKS DOWN while they are down. I'm responsible, and wouldn't do it. But now that they are up. the banks are going to 1." All I have heard out of him for 3 weeks is "banks are going to '0'"

I'm always curious how much he is lying to himself. that is FLAT OUT DELUSIONAL... but I refused join the Cramer haters... but it does show sentiment.

He is running the 1990 or 1984 playbook for a Bank Crisis.

Here is my bank thesis. The LOANS THE REALLY BAD ONES. THE TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF BAD SUBPRIME, AND BAD ALT A. were made by the great securitizing mega structure, the great machine, that started with the mortgage brokers, who packaged the loans, and dumped them on (C) Citigroup, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and some of the other Ibanks, and money centers. 90% of the bad lones are there. If you were some DUMB ASS, waiter and you wanted a loan to buy 6 houses. You went to CFC who then securitized the loans

When the music stoped, after those banks dumped the CDOs off on hedge funds, Probably, tons of financial funds, European banks, asian banks, and anyone else questing for some added yield, in an aged of low interest rates. Trillions were dumped in their coffers. THAT IS WHERE MOST THE PAIN IS.

The Treasury has been clear, that it's time for the Moral hazard, from the reckless behavior of the big banks to come home to roost. and are prepping for some major implosions. Or dissolution's. They will be orderly.

Regional banks, the reserve is in bed with regional banks, always have been. As the Ibanks and money centers are HAMMERED by a lack of lending, the regional ones, are only in trouble if they made a lot of subprime or alt a loans in order to keep up with the Ibanks and the Money Centers.

Yes, they have exposure to commercial lending. yes, projects now in progress, aren't going to be completed for another year or so. The regionals will be able to hold on till then. Further more, JPmorgan was talking a few weeks ago about how they wanted more exposure to "Store front" lending.. Why because that will become the new thing, we will go from the "BIG BANK too big to FAIL" back to Credit union and regional lending. In fact I think it's possible, that your local bank is going to become your friend again, Service with a smile... no more massive Fees, and feeling like they are screwing you to hold onto your money..... AND SOME OF THEM DO HAVE SOME OF THE CDOs and some did decide to on a case by case basis get some risky loans.

But again, if you were doing risky speculation, you went to the IBANKS... now sometimes someone got over their head in a loan, but will intend to pay it back. and probably will have limited non performing risk... some one who didn't intend to make good on a loan. didn't go to the local bank and look the loan officer in the face.

So, as you look into Regional banks, RF Regions Financial, FITB fith third bank, UB UnionBanCal Corp, STI SUNTRUST BANKS, BBT BB&T CP. They are the big winners in this situation. They will be how liquidity is returned to the system. With Long Rates going to the moon, and an ability to borrow cheep at the short rate. THEY ARE PRINTING MONEY. and the big banks are left, with dry bones trying to figure out how to create the next mess. Yes some of the regionals will be stagnant for some time, and have some "credit crunch" lack of ability to make money because the are still raising capital.

Certainly there is risk, Some other banks may fail. but it won't be like 90 or 84. but the regionals can write CDs, and can borrow from the fed.... the only worry is a bank run... and if the hedges or whoever start rumors. the SEC will throw someone in Jail. and that will put an end to it. and if you are a hedge fund on the other side of this trade, you are but fucking stupid. your fund is within months of colapse if your so desperate you are going to try and create a run on a bank, to be on the bad side of this trade..... you are a sucker and you and your money are soon to be parted. The Regional bank train has left the station.

As the asshats on wall street try to convince you to go short these banks... This is THE MOST MASSIVE BEAR TRAP YOU HAVE EVER SEEN. and Citygroup...and all the big guys who created this mess(ENRON), and the last mess(having a hard time remembering), and the one before that. They will not go to '0' but will be fed upon by the vultures, and the working parts of their business will be devoured like hyenas. So I guess you go out Sub $10

And if anyone from our legislative branch is looking into the Uptick or Up-tick rule. I'd like you to consider if it isn't finally important to let a few of these big banks that are ALWAYS the Problem Fail. and if they are big, and make huge mistakes... It's time to let them be dissolved, just like the great wealth destroying machines they are... maybe they can pay the FDIC and get a 500,000 insurance or something.

Just another in a long list of things... i could be wrong on... But consider as you search for banks to try and bang them down using the skf... you are on the wrong side of the trade. Ask yourself this... in 2 years when you go to get a loan, is it likly you will go to your community bank... or are you going to Citygroup?

Alright I have to admit that JPM will rule the universe, in the next decade.

I'm not sure..... I want to be clear, that I'm not saying that anyone's money is unsafe in any institution....