I'm finally decompressing.... good lord. 2 naps today....
(I have no idea what 11 sigma event has created the below text to be underlined)
I umn... Just amazing as a week.
Interesting... I'm not sure what I've written.
I was looking at the Cramer portfolio for this week.... you know it's down like 20-40%.
Many people are flat footed on this... So, this is where "hypothetically" the Cyclical trend, cracks the Secular one.
Where cyclically we get weak energy, and it trumps the secular trend.
Refiners should get strong... but I think they may get thrown out with the bathwater. I tell you, as far as stock stories, that will be interesting, if the refiners get tossed, with improved crack spreads....
But do you know how far in the Cyclical cycle energy shows back up? I guess it has to have some uptrends at one point. Makes me cautious about that VLO call.... Umn... I'd just stay away...
The big debate with The purvayer of Buddhist Kohns, about $200 oil. Which I still suspect she said Toungue N' Cheek(I mean GOLDMAN, promised us $200 oil right? they are always correct, wouldn't be trying to shill us.), I need a better chart.... It just looks like the Cyclical energy trend is over.
I was asking myself a little bit ago, if she was my muse, or I hers...., and Melissa is getting Jealous...(or at least quiet) Because this blog isn't about stocks... It's a soap opera....(Wow, what a great way to digress)
Even worse could be, what I said about "Transports", those could get amazing..... I'm having a hard time remembering where they land in the rotation. Dow theory is Transports, confirmed by industrials.... I think...???.
Honestly, I'm hating this blog right now.
This week, it has just been all the OOZE flowing out of my Pores..... Emotions hanging by a thread.... Good stuff, but... Mildly embarrassing... I have a personal blog, I once Live blogged, me getting drunk on the town Pictures and everything. So, I'm use to embarrassing myself....
I guess, as a meditation, I like being True to myself. Not minding sharing my own personal deamons. Because we all have them.
Here is a story, I used to play "Soft Pitch" Wait for moves to develop, then see them set a higher high, then a higher low. Then move in.
I started asking myself if I was an aggressive trader? and I realized I was. Pluss or minus I want every swing, and if we aren't swinging, Time to day trade. There are ways to risk manage it. You just play your fast money, aggressively, then moving in aggressively as the move develops, then start unwinding it.
Saturday, July 19, 2008
Manic week
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4 comments:
Now I don't know whether to keep talking or shut up.
My overall Thesis is "we are all better as a group, than separate".
And I have an uncanny ability to word vomit on my blog.
It's important to me that I don't get caught up in the echo chamber in my own head.
And sometimes I'm just trying to flush out ideas.
and its all, Probabilities, and risk management.
Can you please explain Invivo's Trading Ideas list?
I don't understand what the Buy and Sell stops in that list mean. If there's a Buy stop - is that a recommendation to short the stock?
Soros shorted oil and went long gold.
Even the best of them make mistakes LOL
IMO this has so many people Frazzled.. It almost feels like impending full capitulation.
the Keynesian beauty contest post/podcast explains it better than I ever could.
:)
http://invivoanalytics.com/2008/05/07/podcast-the-keynesian-beauty-contest/
I'm always making the mistake of not checking it for the broader thesis... but one could say that it's not a specific thesis, just swings. Wherever they take us.
:)
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