Gartman on fastmoney

Macky was saying how he didn't understand how Gartman could buy a financial, when so clearly the chart goes from the upper left, to the lower right.

Gartman kind of shruged, said "you have to buy them at one point".

Generals Fighting the last war. In 1990 the excess housing was in the Savings and Loans. As Credit Contracted, it was the holders of the loans that Were Squeezed, and the Savings and loans, wound up without a chair musical chairs that is a crisis.
From this thesis some of the market thinks, the Regional banks will explode.

My thesis is that those loans were securitized, Trillions in that market. Some is on the books of different Investment institutions, and as long as it keeps paying it's rate of return, or lower. it won't cause a problem. Just a bad investment. The Regionals don't hold that debt, What debt they do have is Commercial loans to builders. Most of that Debt is Loans for land, and loans for Large building projects. But... That debt has segnificant assets behind it, Unlike Car loans or home loans, where you have the Retail value attached to the loan, the builder loans are for the Wholsale Value... that has a much higher Forclosure value.
Also, Most the Credit cards, and other loans in this country are all in the hands of Citygroup, or BAC, or USB. Money centers have taken most the market share away from the regionals... and will take the Pain.

The big banks, and Larger lending institutions, especialy the ones who were still building them when the market went dry... The ones that are Leveredged, and have Billions of that debt on their books. Citygroup, Lehman, Merrell, Goldman, RBS, etc.... They will be tied up with this bad debt for years.

One Thesis is that the Regionals will be taken over.... Where will the money come from?, there is no financing for that. The only way to do it is a stock swap.... who is going to Trade a Bank stock for a Bank stock? That is madness.

I'm not saying the Regionals won't take segnificant Pain. But in a few quarters, we could easily see that the regionas are taking back market share, and the Big Banks Will Just Muddle.

Or we crash and it's the end of freemarket capitalisum, and we start throwing rocks at eachother.