Damn... it has been a long weekend and long week...
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2008
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July
(544)
- What the hell are you people doing to my market!!
- long week
- safe
- XLE Valuations look great.
- Rally
- Investing for Deaf People
- Really.....
- Sorry
- I have returned
- Seems like
- quick sentiment
- Tired
- Potatochip Recession
- Like a big boy
- #3
- Remember
- One more thing
- Some asshole
- hmm...
- Regional Bank thesis
- Hi
- I'm going to set up some orders
- What is up with MER
- Hey!!!!!
- Futures
- some weekend sentiment.
- umn....
- http://www.scribd.com
- Some Late night Monkey, typwriter banging.
- Contrary indicator
- Good stuff
- Market hangover
- I wish I could draw the charts.
- Bear Mania on Kudlow
- I just ran through the secotors
- oh
- Charts
- The best thing about this market
- market full of hate
- Can we posibly hope
- Crumbs...
- earned every nickle of that
- Like a fool
- Lets lose some money
- Run... But wait...
- lets see it.... Com'on break down...
- dI just think you are all out of Bears........ I'm...
- fanny and freddy on credit watch
- why is this working
- well
- I just heard run on bank on cnbc
- there is the test
- trend line test
- besides my costanza thesis
- we havn't cliff jumped
- there is the possiblity of the costanza trade
- exits
- I've set some exits
- If I talk nice ?
- My GOD!!!!
- the dreaded tripple top
- show me the money
- spy
- com'on tick value
- alright
- broader drops in housing prices
- Lets see if I can lose some money
- don't dissapoint daddy
- of course
- :)
- yamada, and the Great bear and
- I wonder
- Vix
- quantifyable edges
- One last thing today.
- Boogyman
- Where was I
- Sentiment july 24
- Crox is intersting at 2
- the chart above
- I'll do this later
- have to buy some.... We have needed this correctio...
- well
- Tick Ratio
- here I am giving up...and it will probably turn......
- sigh
- I like this
- Lets see a higher high
- 10 months
- retest
- here is a retest
- Confirmation and leadership
- again
- danger
- I didn't like ticks in the 500... but I'll take 52
- Game on
- hmm
- still a believer but....price pays
- wfc
- getting ready
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July
(544)
7 comments:
It's not over yet! or are you taking a day off tomorrow?
A lot of my short-term picks went from extremely oversold into extremely overbought today.
I'm holding 1 short and 1 long overnight. Tough to predict anything, every morning is a joy :)
"The current August crude contract closes for trading on Tuesday July-22nd."
I never quit, I havn't had a vacation since, march 07. I have taken a day off or so.
My body Siezed up on me, after 4 days of "the Great stagflation-Depression"... , and I've been running so hard.
Predictions are a nightmare.
Up, down, up. Get ready to be massivly overbought. Standard lunch correction at 125.75 spy. maybe
then 127.50...???
Futures will mess wit it, and they will be up 10 spx minimum.
I'll have to work on the wave counts in the morning.
My Crystal ball says.. Maybe friday and monday we get a correction... Could be violent... 150 on friday and then 300 points monday.
How if ahead of the crude contract expiration Monday-tuesday... Crude Finaly Cracks into the 120's, and the new move up starts, tue- thurdsday next week?
Then maybe some sideways motion. the week after...
I think we can get bearish again then....
If that chart works out, I'll giggle madly for days.
I have some massive worries about Everything materials, and oil related. I think it's so massivly over owned, it's going to Crack hard. Regardless of if it's Drilling or intigraded/nonintigrated. I've stayed away from all materials for months, because of what a "hyped story they are"
I just think the exits are about to get very crowded.
And the real danger of the oil ETF is that, oil trades for hours before even premarket opens. And say some Hedgie has MASSIVE crude contracts, Exiting them at the bell on 9:30 Puking up 20% loss in 10 minutes.... Mother market is so Cruel.
or not.
Can you be more specific about materials? What else is as parabolic as oil? I'm not seeing it. Ags, oil and natty, what else?
What do you think about inflation explanation for the oil price? (i.e., gallon of gas costs the same now as it did 50 years ago, if you price it in silver).
This actually makes sense to me.
I think you talked about it earlier, inflation-adjusted we're in super bear territory at the moment. And inflation adjusted oil is not that bad either, it just moved too fast from a very low point.
There's also that rumour that it's not speculators but Chinese buying up the oil 1) in anticipation of higher prices; 2) to get rid of US$.
Let's suppose oil does break big due to someone cashing out. Would that mean a 1,000pt rally? Gold, silver would break. What else?
I'll work on this,
As I banged this out, I know this is a ton of info, and I also know how marginal my writing is... I just refuse to do much editing. I'll work on Broader clearer Thesis, and Catch me on the weekend when I'm less fatigued from watching every tick in 6 indexes.. maybe 7. plus individual names all day.
there was a guy on fastmoney tonight talking about what a "Crowded trade" emerging markets and materials are.
Every Huge money manager is managing based on this secular story... Which AINT OVER. but...
The Hedgies will start getting desperate soon.(especially after missing this move, tons of people missed it, and are about to jump on in the next week.) and Portfolios filled with the Secular story, when the cyclical story is breaking... Well those exits can get very crowded(as we have started to see in oil stocks) in that situation. I don't even think the "trillion dollar managers" can catch that knife.
Just like Agriculture and Dryshipping, (first recovery(coal)) are great true accurate stories... problem is... they are very crowded trades. and cyclically it isn't time for them.
'it's never different this time'
but in the fall when cyclically gold gets strong again, and this up wave will "Retest", when the current wave form goes to "euphoria". And cyclicly we will start Crushing the Retail names.
I'll like gold Based on the chart-asrology... I like gold with a new low, in the low 800's. I've been saying 820 which is a 20% premium to last year.. which matches the inflation numbers.(maybe those are my inflation numbers)
Oil... Well just to doubt your thesis of 120... last year at the mid summer pull back it was 80? I think... Well I like it with the inflation number of 20% into it... so.. I kind of like oil at 100 level. I guess the yamada number is 120... but shouldn't it break the cyclical uptrend, but not break the Secular one?... and how do you run a chart when it trades 24/7 in several markets...?? Seems like too many variables..
I also... Well
'it's never different this time' right
cyclically inflation will moderate. But not Secularly.
Uncle ben, may be the most brilliant Central banker ever... by front loading the cuts, and not acting like a "fool in a shower" as friedman put it(i'm not the biggest friedman fan, but that doesn't make him wrong.( Another aside, I like to call Greenspan the "fool in a bathtub".)
Well, with the rate cut frontloaded, it front loaded the inflation(as we have seen with oil), and with negative real interest rates, there is more inflation to come, we may be able to talk about 30% next year. BUT there will be Stimulus from the Massive rate cuts.... It is there.
With some judicious Rate hikes, Maybe Quarterly, or 2 times a year... maybe the market will love it.
We all walk a fine line in life, as Ben has to act with growth and inflation, I think he is doing a great job of walking that line... with some exception I have with his weakness of character.
So back to inflation... Secular inflation will have to be delt with Secularly.... What they have to do is slowly raise rates over the "Stagnation cycle", this will give the economy some time to adjust to the tighter rates, instead of doing like volker did and Beating the Hell out of us for 5 years with 15% rates... 9% is comming, but using my Mojo, magic, chart astrology... if we can get to 9% over the next 5 years. that will kill the Secular inflation story.....
But that Secular story, the materials, the agriculture, the 'inflation stocks' will 'Top' at that point.
but over 5 years, we will go through some wild economic moves, in and out of recession. it's going to be a bumpy ride.
I don't mean to get into the "Wave form" Crazy bullshit... but so far, the wave forms on this upmove, are as healthy as I've seen, since 2006. it sort of says to me...This level, the 11k feels like fair value....
maybe we come down, and double bottom, maybe not... Maybe our 10,500 target is the good one. maybe we will need to cook in 10k. Obviously we didn't even test 10,700... maybe that will be "The Low"
Regardless of the Secular story, the cyclical story will play out as the sector rotation says, The materials will bottom when they are supposed to, and the market will get all worked up about how Global growth is dead, China is going into the "Great Chinese depression"... The usual. We are completely set up for that post olympic, slowdown, bearish move in all the industrial, and material names, based on a slowness after the Olympics, which we will do the chicken little "the sky is falling"
But the materials names, well there is no reason not to play some of the corrective up moves, as it unfolds but Emerging markets, and materials, are... well... It's not time...
Inflation and silver weighting the price of oil...
there are some market forces invloved in producing oil vs 50 years ago, we do have machines, and tools and computers, that make producing oil.. Cheeper. I'm not sure you can rate oil based on the price 50 years ago. There are probably too many Variables to get a "Clean number" but putting an inflation premium on it from a year ago...
Be warned I sometimes have the theme right but miss the move because I'm waiting to "top tick" the move.
i found a story on how the chinese were using the oil subsidies to keep civil disruption to a minimum pre olympics.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5i5TtajgUpSm7KY5jf-lCJGHBB-tAD91D777O0
I mean... how bad would it be if there were fuel shortages during the games? all the NBC people saying "Well, we like china... except the 4 hours we spent in a fuel line" what a disaster that would be.
I'm not ... Remember My broader Thesis is one of optimisum, Free Trade is good (not how we have done it, but it is good)
We are more connected not less. The chinese don't want to hurt us, they want to be us.(or the brad pit, anjelena Jolie fantasy they have of us).
People don't hate the dollar, they just want it to be stronger. But Macro economic forces are what are needed, We need Better economic policies, and not the overweighted supply side ones we have.
we need buyers, sellers, bulls, Bears, republicans, democrats, libertarians, black helicopter guys, hippies,.... and we always need these people in market equilibrium.
the Chinese like dollars, Regardless of our problems, they need to diversify their substantial assets. They also are very hip to markets, we have been taking foreign markets for granted for their stupidity. They know that if they horde oil... well that will drive the price up, and they will pay more for it. than they could if they sip on it.
and they need oil... what do you think all that smoke in the air is... They arn't hording it they are burning it....
Also, they arn't letting their currency float... and the downside is that they end up with the "market compensating" giving them the Cruelest tax of all(inflation)... and yes they export it, but they also get slowness because their products are getting more expensive... providing more slowing. The government, has to Pay extra for every gallon of gas they buy. Which even dumps money into our pockets.
Even better, High oil prices means if we smarten up, we will use the Great hive mind of the western civilization, and figure out Fusion, or other energy sources... maybe switch away from big heavy Steal Stinky street Machines(cars).
It's a good thing...
Dang... I didn't realize that was that long.
I also realize that sometimes I'm referencing the seasonal cycle with oil and gold, and I keep saying the cyclical cycle... My problem is that they are running together..
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