Excellent

...... It's getting to that time...... Time to look into the Abyss.

I will stick to my bets that this market is going to MUDDLE PAINFULLY. I saw Carter Worth, Great guy Brilliant Technician.

He was looking for a Wash out to the bottom, down to 10K.... IMHO he is wrong. there is 1 example of a Bear market 1966(21%in 9 months(and that is a bottom in august(we are at 20% in 8 months), that have sold off to a bottom within 9 months. All the rest took 1.5-2 years. Examples 69, 73, 76, 81.... and if we have a secular bear, they are likely to sell off to 20-30%, then Rally into the next Bear market. a year -2 years later.

In 1973, the worst of them, we had Price Controls, which kept profits low, we had Wage Controls, Strong Unions, and a Fed on a Tightening Bias, during an oil embargo.(This may be what happens in 2009)
It is the nature of the bear market to Muddle. It's what they do.

That run was Wave 4, we will wave 5 then rally, maybe 2 weeks, maybe a month.... Carter seemed frustrated by the lack of wash out, as I was a week ago. I'm going to continue to trade aggressively, and Besides Energy, I'm ready to start Playing Long... and I'll Get more and more Aggressive.

Once the market shows an ability to make money on the long side on a wave 4, it will wake the bulls up. As they just saw a 20% 1 day game.... Trust me, they are frothing. Yes there will be some sloppy attempts. I was going to buy some positions into the close, but chickend out... Which is good... It's best for me to play more defensive, and become aggressively more Bullish.

As a Function of the Uptick Rule, the financial are getting Unduly Hammered. In the worst of the Bears, they sold off to this level, but after 2 years. and XOM was at 50% at the end.

The regionals have never sold off like this, as I've seen in my research. I just believe soon it will be time get in heavily.... In a way, I almost don't care what happens... Worst case, I'll get a job for 2 years while I wait for them to bounce back. But 12-15% dividends... You just have to think about it.... even diluted... Banks take pride in the dividend, they like to say "we have never cut our dividend" or "We have increased or dividend every year for 30 years.

Maybe the uptick rule will Crash the market... that is possible. I also may sugjest that what is happening is so bad... that we may actually Crash. I don't mean the economics, I mean the trading is just ... Over done. and a Crash is an unprecedented panic. If we are this far out of the box... I think it's possible. But that Vix will hit 30 and the buying will start....



The EWT says we are looking for a nice bounce soon... 2 days- 2 weeks.... But decline tomorrow, decline friday... panic/crash monday. WE WILL MOST LIKELY MUDDLE

but we are going to see.