Dow INDEX and the boogyman

The boogyman gets me sometimes.And this is the Chart. Just to do the Unspoken job to Unreasonably Scare People. Here is My Boogyman Thesis.

• The Financials have taken a 40% haircut, and in my opinion City is going to 10-12. JPM to 20, and the rest of those "too big to Fail" Creators of "Moral Hazard" are going sub 20. So, It isn't over. Further more, this means the rest of the market is ... going to sub 9k.
• I've thrown out my "this is going to be a 1.5 year process", But the market is a discounting Mechanism... I hear. I'm afraid of it deciding to discount Now!
  

My counter Thesis is:

• It's the unknown, not the known that gets us.
• If the market is a discounting mechanism, or forward looking.... Umn Why 6 months after October, wasn't the economy supposed to be "Red Hot" in April?
• We are more likely to slowly melt down, Could be Wrong, but I think the market needs to prove itself to the downside, it will but it has to be more than supposition.
• The 40% in all the financials could be an anomaly due to the uptick rule, and "chasing performance".

Yamada, and her Thesis.

Her thesis .... In a Scientific Experiment or model, you need Samples, Thousands of samples. to use 1990, 1974, 1945, 1929. that is a Thin Sample.

Generals are always fighting the last war.

The majority of people are trading this like it's 2000.

• Someone, tell me when nasdaq is going to crash? and when those Planes are coming, Chart wise it's coming up!!!!!!! Run.

Cramer, and the Babyboomers are Fighting the 1990 S&L crash.

• Umn, The S&L's were holding the Debt that time? Who has it now?
  

macke was talking LTC.... That was the craziest thing I've heard in a while.

Many Traders are Fighting 1974.

• Umn.... The Fed Was hiking into unemployment
  
• We had Price and wage controls.
  
• Lines at the Gas Pumps.
• We had just come off the Gold Standard.
• We had just been evicted in Vietnam by farmers with Pitchfoks.(This still could still happen)
• (I'll admit there is some Rhyming)

1929 I can't believe I have to argue this

• The Weimar(At the time one of the 20 Greatest Civilizations, Since the Dark Ages) Suffered the Hubris, of world Domination, and went into hyperinflation.(ok, this could be us, but not now(and the stock market went to infinity)
• We didn't have keynes, friedman, and the fiat Dollar.
  

Back to Yamada:

This is such a limited Sample, If this is a "super cycle:Kuznets", or "Grand cycle: Kondratieff", if those are Legitimate cycles. Ability to Legitimately Forecast Using one sample, is a mistake.
Also, Applying EWT to those cycles, assuming the beginning was 2000. If you apply inflation to the indexes, you realize that we are at the Tale end of that corrective Cycle. applying the ABC Corrective model: A Correction, the largest of the two(2000-2003) Wave B Upmove (2003-2007) Wave C(2007-2009), and the downside is probably still 10K on the Dow.

To say that we have to "Revisit the 1990 trend is 950 on the SPX)..... But a Candy Bar in 1990 was .50, Its a buck now(or more), soda was .50, and now is over a Buck. Say 120% inflation from 1990-2008.

at 100% inflation that puts the current SPX at 620, which is Well Below the Trend line. and you can argue that we were playing with that trend at 1400, and that was what broke down, in October.

My Models have said 9-10K, for over a year. But that is just based on a 40% super cycle correction, but it should take some time.

It's all just supposition anyways, and it never works out the way I think.