Bear Stearns Monday, or is it Fanny/Freddy/Indymac monday? or SocGen Monday?
do you ever think that Treasury and the Fed get sick of "making a Statement" on the Monday before Financials earnings?
and for that to give us a nice bit of hope before we "Wash out?"
I've been going through the Teresa lo invivoanalytics.com stuff I'm not a big fan of... "investment advisers" but she is brilliant, and worth every penny. It could be some of my OCD, but I'm just saying I'm madly in love.... I know she is taken, but no reason to not be smitten.
I went through some of it months ago, but I'm taking the weekend to digest some of the resources.
I saw this chart, thought it was brilliant, it's not hers, but she pointed it out. I was looking at Oil the other day and realized I have it wrong.... We will need to see a Very good dip, followed by some Great "oil is going to $500 talk" That should top it out. cyclically we get a July June pull back I hear. We could get a nice Refiner run soon. and give us that good "Buy the Dip" .
I'm wondering if materials are right now in the "Buy the dip" Phase?
Saturday, July 12, 2008
Does it seem like I'm recovering?
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6 comments:
Don't know if the Fed is sick, but I'm sick of them ruining my weekends.
Are you looking at any materials specifically? A few base metals have an excessive short interest, in anticipation of increases supplies. I expect some big moves in lead and zinc at end of july early august, from unrealized supplies and covering to boot.
Nothing else is interesting, except maybe nickel.
Oil to $200, at least.
My papers are "Grim" today. did you read Paulson in the WSJ?
The minimum they will do is "Ensure us that there is no Systemic Risk", I guarantee it.
All the headlines are "Crisis" "Woes" "panic","financial Crisis". Even a story in my local business section is all "My new Ipod, didn't work"
This is very "near term low" behavior if we get a monday Rally, or flat trade I'll be super nervous. Even if we do, the bank earnings will scare the crap out of everyone. and we will wash out on that.
My Prediciton is down 200 futures. and we sell off for an hour or 3 and wash out. then a monster rally all week through monday morning.
I've been a longtime fan of RIO, ACI. Seems like gold is a good play... Except it's again Time for a Yearly pull back in gold price.
If you are looking for the Fast money, I'm suspecting it will be in Pharma for a few months, then broader healthcare.
If you want some safe turtle stocks, go for Congolmerates,(I think this is going to be the surprise of this quarter),
or NonCyclicals. JNJ, PG
This is time for a yearly pullback in oil... but a run in the Refiners.
so maybe it will finally get a pullback in oil for a few weeks 2 months, back to $130, from the $150 we will hit on monday. the pullback will Crater the oil stocks. Then it might run to $200 in Sept-oct as the market craters to 10K. after the 12K we are going to Bounce to.
The Cyclical Story for Materials is getting long in the Teeth.
But the Secular bull of that story is going to be Epic.
I believe that great shorts soon are going to be Retail, and Oil producers.
I could be wrong.
Gold should've been weak already, it's unseasonably strong.
However it will break when oil does (only temporarily of course). I like your oil scenario, in terms of probability that is. I think the consequences of $200 oil will be horrible once it trickles down to the bottom.
I agree that much will depend on what happens on Monday. Rally would be very shocking at this point unless there's some sort of intervention.
Did not read Paulson but will if you say it's good :)
I'll post my watch list a bit later, going for a walk.
That other news link I posted is roughly the Paulson Story. It's just the journal Hyping- "no, protection for holders". the title doesn't even specify debt, or Stock holders.
Which is the "Boogyman" that has us right now.
I hate to agree with "Cramer", but; if you go to bloomberg and catch the video of what everyone has said, and see the Testimony from paulson. It's clear from the president, and Paulson that they will not allow Fanny and Freddy will not stop financing Mortgages. If the Auction goes badly... things may go badly for a few days.
One problem with that 1 month pull back in oil/gold thesis, is the Rising bond rates, falling Dollar, trade being driven by a "bailout" of the GSE, which was the friday trade.
Which Of course drives Oil and Gold up.
The original spike in gold, as I remember smelled like Gartman getting all the Gold bugs Juiced up. and with the "Fear Trade", it's maintained momentum. Maybe after a few days, we will pull out of that fear trade.
of course I'm Just bitter because I Flew to safety into gold last year at this time and Got a face full of pull back to 600 With the anticipated Plunging market. Maybe it can pull back to 900 or something
But I just looked at the gold chart, and it says I'm wrong about gold, and that it wants to retest the highs, which doesn't bode well, but it is just shiny metal.
I've seen just about everyone(bloggers) working hard this weekend. That is a very near term low signal.
This feels bogyman, and not black swan.
I like the idea that "Grim Xmas" and $200 oil drives us down from September-October. after a short 4 week bounce here.
But that could be wishful thinking.
Well I just read my daily dose of blogs - yes, lots of active people and lots are on the prowl for BANK DEALS! I'm going to re-buy SKF if people start buying up the banks.
We could go down in the morning and then rally big. Another scenario that "could be wrong".
I'm long gold and silver for the longer term here. Well not entirely. I have a permanent 50% position in both and I trade the other 50%.
I understand that you're interested in the short term more, sorry for ranting about long term so much.
We may be near a short-term bottom, but VIX at 30 is not enough panic for a washout.
October washout would be great but the problem is people actually expect market crashes in fall, so if it's so predictable we won't get enough panic. It has to catch us all by surprise.
I hate this blogger comment window, I can only keep a thought for as long as I see it in this tiny window.
Due to increased blogger activity I'm revising my Monday watch list as people seem to be preparing for buying the dip *sigh*
Well, You have me going again... I need to run some charts.
One of these days, I'm going to say "I need to run some charts", and in a violent rejection of that notion, My eyeballs are going to explode.
but I digress.
I want to challenge some of my assumptions, and see what I can come up with.
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