The market thesis is "Tech is going to save us", unfortunately this places unreasonable expectations on technology. It will not be until the expectations are disastrous, that tech will be able to bottom, It's just like Financials.... Until that sentiment is so negative that even bad news is good news.
Even worse.... I've started trolling ibank coin..... is that what it's come to? I need to be better than this.
Is it me or is it obvious that some "trader, Ibank guy" is creating a place to Troll people into the "crowded trade"
Monday, July 21, 2008
Contrarian market/ and expectations
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8 comments:
You're trolling as in "visiting" or "being a troll"? Which one are you?
Well tonight's earnings / guidance suck.
Like I mentioned earlier, waiting to see if SPX can get through 1280. So far no go.
Oil is doing alright. People want to have at least one trade they can rely on.
It really is slow. I was even able to do some actual work on Friday and today :)
more, in the list of things that embarrass myself... I was suggesting a revenge trade against the financials.
The SPX is in turmoil, as leaders become laggards and vis-versa, But if one looks at it like a correction, going on, it's a very weak one... I'd love to see it pull back. but I don't think it's coming back very far.
Ya, I took a long nap today, had the alerts set up on the computer, and nothing happed.
the gold miners being bullish is surprising me.... You sounded like you had a good handle on some of that... have some opinion.
I still think oil is going to try and build a base at 120 ish.
the revenge trade was something I was Trolling in "I bank coin"
I was asking if you had some feedback on gold mining?
Well since markets are slow and I'm feeling mellow - must be the cognac - do you want to hear a story? It's only remotely related to precious metals.
My first investment *ever* was Silver Wheaton back in 2004. SLW was later bought out by GG. So I made a sweet 85%+ on that trade in a couple of years. I should have kept holding it, but it was exciting to take some profits (and I wanted to trade, not invest). That was definitely beginner's luck.
I found SLW in WSJ. I basically went through the entire stock list, highlighted the ones that had the best fundamentals (p/e, growth etc). SLW was the only one under $5 at the time, so it was my only choice in the end. I wanted a lot of shares for little money :)
Since then, I really love silver and gold, both bullion and stocks.
There, I'm done.
I don't trade gold as it's at the point where movements are sharp both ways (normally) so I just buy on significant dips, the same amounts each time. It won't be dropping any time soon IMO.
GG always behaves technically correct. SLW not as easy lately but I still trade it. Still easy, but a little bit harder.
I don't like Yamana (AUY), but it's currently the preferred gold stock from what I see. I'm just biased.
As you see gold is holding up very well. It did great on the "rally" day, too.
See, I typed all of this and don't want to delete it. On the other hand, I hate to confuse you even more, you seem to be overloaded with information :)
LOL, That was good, nice story.
I'm not sure I'm confused, when my "whits" are more about me. I tend to start talking like a proper trader. Take nothing for granted, and talk in possibilities, probability.
If you havn't realized, I refuse to edit. It's not like my goal is to create a blog where I charge people for my speculation. I just like to bang out a few ideas.
I may have changed my mind, that felt like a very good bank bottom. and sure City will be dissolved or maybe WM or LEH. But they will make it a quiet affair.
Of course is anything quiet on wall street.
I have so many friends who bought into .com they hate the market so bad! I talk to them about it... I feel like a therapist.
I heard it today "nothing is working", and it's because the cyclical trend in breaking down.... Regardless of it still being a larger Secular trend...
I'm starting to doubt my $3000 gold predictions. I think there are some surprises in store, and they may actually get inflation under control.... at one point.
Also, when everywhere I go, I hear jim rogers quoted... I start thinking that trade is a little long in the tooth.... Next it will be schiff.
Sorry I didn't mean "confused". You make sense in a weird sort of way. I meant - I don't want to add info that's irrelevant (and my story was irrelevant and not helpful in trading).
Why would they want to stop inflation? They have to pay off that huge national debt and save a bunch of friends' banks, too.
As for Jim Rogers being on the air and in press a lot, consider it media trying to snag a good story and seem "contrarian", like they're giving all sides airtime. Basically I think all media are as chasing after a sensation. And a self-made billionaire saying that gold is the trade - that's pretty sensational.
Also, think back to 1979-1980. Gold was very much on people's minds as they all rushed in to sell their gold and silver spoons. Yet PM's just kept on going up. What i mean is even if they take measures to stop inflation, the effect won't be instant.
So many "important" people are saying this recession is going to be bad.
Looking back to 1999-2000 - were they warning of the same back then? I don't know, wasn't paying attention.
Bwt: therapist to friends? that doesn't sound autistic at all.
I just said a little autistic, everyone's portfolios are dead right now, they call me for advice.
they don't get that, Now is the best time for them to put new money in. and the returns will be 4x over the next while.
they think "my portfolio is down, I souldn't invest".
In reference to this recession "being bad". most cyclical pull backs aren't more than 40%.
You also have to look at it "inflation adjusted" and based on the idea that we haven't been anywhere since 2000.
So... Going to be bad... It already is. Easy to say we have been in a secular bear. It's hard to get worse..
40% is roughly 9.7k...
I like the targets I have. either a nice double bottom, 10400, There is some nice semitry to a double bottom in jan-mar, and july, october.
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