Art Cashin

Art said something interesting today, about how everything just ground down day after day after day after day in the 1970's and how horrible it was to trade through it.

I was just looking at some charts of that grimness. overall... Sorry I was just looking at those charts... Everything getting cut in half or more. It actually feels like this...

I suspect that could develop.... Also of note is that no sector was spared... and everything bottomed at the same time...

look at this quote from 1973

"Of course [the world price of oil] is going to rise," the Shah told the New York Times in 1973. "Certainly! And how...; You [Western nations] increased the price of wheat you sell us by 300%, and the same for sugar and cement...; You buy our crude oil and sell it back to us, refined as petrochemicals, at a hundred times the price you've paid to us...; It's only fair that, from now on, you should pay more for oil. Let's say ten times more.

So.... another thing to consider int the 1973-1975 debacle..... and yes.... I'm a hard money guy... But they have to tighten as the market goes up... if it's going down they have to hold...

What I'm getting at is that in the 1973-mid 1974 period... the market fell as the fed tightened. Then they went from 13%-10%... and at that point, and as the fed loosened again the market rallied.. and muddled till 1983.

I'm getting at the idea that that just isn't going to happen.... 1930's arn't going to happen... We are in New Waters....

I honestly expect a very range bound trade from say 10K-12800 for 5 years... and the 10K is most likely to happen in the next 9 months....

this seems early for it...

I just want to talk my book since this is the first time I've been a bit long for weeks...

won't be the first time I've lost money... what I'll be bumbed about is the unrealized gains..