so...
Oil is just..... Looks awe full as a chart. the 126.20 feels like the top but it's feeling tired or I'm feeling tired.....
there is some tired..
Do you think it would help if I ate... I was really good about it for Months. and in the past week... its just been a whipsaw
I'm going to leave some stocks on for the long haul....
That oil.... it just feels week, and that any second it is going to break down..
and it feels like we need to retest the low.... maybe monday
Thursday, July 17, 2008
126.20
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13 comments:
Sleeping and eating usually helps :)
I desperately need to sleep, getting weepy bwaaaa
Sold my overnight holds, both long and short worked out well. Hope you're having a good day.
I'll respond to your long post later today - a lot to think about and i need a nap.
it always makes me feel good that I'm not the only one....
I got, 3 hours after the close, then 2 hours before the open.
worst part is I can barely read a chart.....
the fatigue works toward that decay pattern.
you have no idea how well I've done.
oil wants to break, and we are sitting at the march lows.....
markets are amazing.
I barely remember what I posted.
I can buy the Yamada targets and oil to 200... Truth is what we need to do is hash it out point by point....
I also have this Crazy idea about this recession being "long, and shallow"... and taking longer than we think and not being as deep as we think...
also.. the waves say this could be the "top" before a retest of a low...
There is plenty of time....
one more trading day after today...
I'm starting to think hold them...
does that mean sell them....
this is all the affect of derivatives on the market isn't it?
(well and economics)
we trade swings on every options expiration week?
I sometimes feel like a slow coach...
crap is hitting the fan after hours. goog, eslr big losers.
ibm was good. so far....
we are going to want to sell off after options in the morning, is my theory.
It's obvious oil is breaking... I'm dying to know when, it's going to jump off a cliff... and it will hit 120.
another thing that has me scratching my head... I'm wondering if they are using naked shorts for the ETFs
Merrill just got clobbered downgraded by moodies.
pluss or minus I think it could be cooked in. or a cover on the news event.
I also swear all the banks open on the next higher strike price.
But.... oil....
this is like walking a serious line..
Naked shorting is rampant in my long term holds. Making me sick and mad.
Moodies lol silly but makes me laugh every time (I mean like "they give ratings depending on the MOOD)
Tinfoil hat moment: what if Iran was to happen? Would that strengthen oil, or only temporarily?
I bet you a fictitious bet...
futures will still be up 10 spx to the next strike. Energy and tech down at the down strike(or worse)
we sell off 300 pts maybe 200.
Monday oil has cracked and we rally.
Ugh... what a bet...
why am I calming you down...
It's a boogyman... You think in the middle of the "Great Stagflation/Infaltion Depression" they will go to war.... over oil..
of course... maybe that is how the 74 oil embargo happened...
I'm getting my tinfoil hat...
smells like wall of worry.
I can't wait till tomorrow I can drink a bottle of wine in an hour.
then vomit and drool on myself. wake up about 9am
merrill rebounds after hours.
I can't do wave counts right now, but I like this up futures into a sell off... 50% replacement of the upmove. Then we get our 1k rally.
I'm not selling my dug for a quarter....
we will get oil scares, hurricanes... etc.
doug kass and this 11 sigma event has me...(I say the 11 sigma is the seasonal oil story and the olympics, and our inflation issues, that gets you a few sigmas) but it makes me like things more.. cause maybe he is freaking out and adding shorts and that provides upside.
this is crazy...
emotions are frayed... it all makes sense.... Rock against the boat.. not with it.
Right... My thesis about decay... we get sleep and rest Monday the world doesn't end it's all fine...
I wish that was modeled out a few .... Recessions...
all the quants and quant runners are giving a 100% rally for 4 weeks minimum..
Just start trading smaller amounts. and don't hold overnight.
Sometimes the more.. people disbelieve something.... The more I buy it.
this is a perfect wave 2 pull back, into plunging oil and a wave 3. 1000 point rally.
But... Up futures.... Then I bet Sell it... Then cover...
I could be wrong... reduce risk.
I swear... George Costanza market..
I give you another one.
People have emotional memory, and roughly this time in the 2k recession.. 9/11 happed... that is why there is that fear.
It's rational because it happened last time...
but generals always fight the last war... and that is how you defeat them.
I'm busting out the sun Tzu
"It's a boogyman... You think in the middle of the "Great Stagflation/Infaltion Depression" they will go to war.... over oil.."
I don't think it would be over oil, it just seems 'their' favorite way of solving economic problems. Unite people on the external front type of thing.
"I'm not selling my dug for a quarter...."
LOL We're so on opposite sides of this trade.
The day before I was kinda excited. In the afternoon wanted to wind down, and during my sun melt had 3 glasses of wine. Normally it would knock me out, but not this time.
It's tough to sleep when you're too exhausted. It'll take awhile to catch up and get really good rst.
BTW, I don't watch CNBC and don't even know these people. Every once in awhile i'll search to see what they look like.
re: 126.20 --
So we're up against the first resistance. If it manages to get above that, it's 128 and down from there.
I never change my trade size, always the same lots. Smallish, not super satisfying. But with smaller amounts i don't freak out as fast and hold out for better gains (or smaller losses).
Can't help the overnight trades. Though before the weekend I'll take off as much as I can.
I had this nice 30 minute nap after the bell...
and 5 hours of amazing sleep... and could still use 16 more.(I did wake up with a headache(but I'll take 5 hours straight, any way I can take it))
Wed, after the close My body started shaking.
"Opposite sides of dug"
For sure, a person I don't want to be on the opposite side of. And I was seeing some "Chart mojo" that.. suggests you may be right.
but... challenge all assumptions.
I was thinking about the decay pattern. Which BTW in "the bull" is the opposite. But emotionally I can see how we are going to get to final capitulation. When the decay pattern wears itself out.
I still think Up open. and Technical me, says 1 day of weakness. And I think Monday we wake up and oil is 120, and the market is off to the races before the bell even goes off.
CNBC
besides how good it is that I'm away from the great "Wall street" bubble. I can be so out of touch, I have to have some way to ... Monitor it. I wish I could get through a week without it. But... there are some times when I get a good idea from some "talking head".
(but it all gives me a tumor)
126.20,
The futures say down... but I like the next strike price... The wave counts suggest one more high. Which is why I like the next "Strike Price" but it wouldn't be the first time I've missed "one more high". I also like the idea we build a quick "bull trap" above resistance. that should give us the downside.
But if it plays out like I think (up futures)"Down, Up, down" down 200 pts, maybe 300. I'll be temted to own them into the weekend. I think oil will crack before the open.
Oil shorts will be hard pressed to be short over the weekend. And what is the mantra "it's the Ceared position that is usually correct."
6.5 more hours to go...
So, I'm looking at your thesis on oil chart. What is that the 123 level?
Just to be me... I want to think "double top or 160"
and will the stocks rally too?
That I can see a Final Rally in Transports, which should correlate with a pull back in oil..
but that then Transports have to get Crushed over the next 6 months, says that there has to be a catalyst..
That just isn't much fun...
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