We are very much pushing the range today... I have to point out that the bollinger band on the vix is just ahead of us.... It's a huge move in the Vix....
but I can put a 36+ target on the vix.
Friday, October 30, 2009
Pushing the range
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SPY gonna bounce on S2 103.52 and maybe end day on S1 104.23
Over the weekend we'll have Dr Brett taking out the stats on what hap[pens after Vix days of +9% and your buddy ZH looking at his McClellan oscillator...
...they'll say that a 15 pt SPX rally is in the cards for Monday.
We will see, and I'll be happy to scalp a long on monday.
this is the 3rd 10% move on the vix...
I stopped listening to Brett and ZH.. Years ago.
I'm looking at VXX and this is the only 9+% move I see. Maybe the NYSE Vix index is a little different, but after the Wed Vix pop, a couple sites *predicted* the market pop Thurs... maybe they were lucky, but it was interesting.
I was kidding about ZH... you had pointed out his McClellan Oscillator (MO) post, which I had read... and I read somewhere a while ago the MO was becoming irrelevant because of the large swings over the last few years. This has made it hard to use for day-trading, which was McClellan's primary purpose.
Well, that was a big day. At the end of the day I have a little SSO, TNA and DIG as hedges and otherwise short individual stocks... I am net flat overall.
Over all I'm trying to trade the daily.
This feels like a half way point for the swing... Maybe DD.
I know I talk about the intraday swings, but I hate trading them. I like building a sold(short) position, which I did above 10K. I added to it yesterday, thinking we would move from Subtle to Overt.
but this is as short as I get (mostly).. maybe I'd daytrade short, if I feel up for it. but this is about as short as I'm willing to get. and if we can Gap down. I'll take a little off, and see what happens.
Doug Kass went "All In" on BAC today... not sure what that means.
he also started Legging in on some other banks. JPM..
I just Hate day trading. and if I was doug and had to do all the crap he does with every ebb and flow of the market... I'd sweep floors.
even with this sell off P/E's are still in the 18-19 range... Which is huge Recovery
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