Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Tuesday, October 6, 2009


that at the "Secret Cabal" Meeting one of the things in the "Basket" will be Gold...

which is why the run in gold...


Never mind that this is 4 or 9 years out.


Tony said...

I'm not saying that gold is smart money, but what if the sell off in the dollar is due to the trouble with Treasurys?

There is this groaning undercurrent that "eventually" the US will run out of buyers for all the debt issuance and every time we have a soft sale, traders start thinking that "eventually" is now.

Eric said...

I was just giving you the MEME.

we will know if things are getting better, if the dollar stops making new lows.

Maybe it's a double bottom here, but I'm not sure I'd bet on it.

Eric said...

but I will say sentiment in the dollar is quite ridiculous today.

Tony said...

Well, I agree that the dollar sentiment is low, but there is a big difference in "John from the office" running gold up and bond traders selling off the dollar and bonds. I think the latter is the predominant mood... but I'm admittedly very bad at sentiment.

Eric said...

I'm starting to sound Like T-Lo.

so the easy thing to do is "Wait a Bar", emotions are high and it could be an inflection point.

But I'm going to sum up teranova today. "over the next few weeks gold and oil are going to have a big move."

so, maybe he is right, but if he is, we can get into oil and gold on Thursday.

The full moon is on the Wain, and we have a "Breakout"... so are we going to be the Traders of last resort? It's more likely that it will bounce down tomorrow and if we want to buy it, we could do it then, or when it starts making this 2 or 3 week run.

I know I'm sort of mocking some office worker, but sentiment affects big money too, not just 'office Johnney'

What you are talking about is some kind of arbatrage or your idea about some kind of Carry trade.

All of which are possible, but I would think they will just apply slow even pressure to the dollar and to gold.

so... Wait a bar and keep an eye on it. if it makes a 3 week run we have 14 more days to catch the trade.

Tony said...

I'm not really looking to enter the gold trade, I'm just trying to understand the market and it's all dollar. EVERYTHING goes up when the dollar goes down. It's just one trade. It's not that everyone wants gold, it's that nobody wants the dollar.

Someone asked me today why everyone is "so high on the stock market" this week, and we got to talking. It's not that everyone is dying to get into General Electric stock, it's just that the dollars that GE is denominated in are devalued.

FWIW, I got some FAZ at the close... haven't had that symbol in the portfolio in a while.

Eric said...

you are going to take some heat.

that was wave 4..

still need wave 5.

this could have just been the left shoulder. Could have been the head, but better to trade either the Head or below the right shoulder.

but who the hell knows, it was aggressive today. Only reason I put some trades in, was because I heard the magic words "You CAN't BE SHORT!" or "Dead Bears"... So it was worth a swing.

Eric said...

Hey!!! so I just looked at that story... That is the Philippines, I thought it was strange they were looking at 7% for a 7 year.

the guy quoted is also.the dep of finance for the Philippines.

so I checked it.

but now I'm curious, who gave it to you? seems like some misinformation is circulating.

Tony said...

yeah, bad info. I copied the wrong link...sory about that. here's the one I meant to send:

But Treasurys recovered somewhat.

New Economic Indicators and Releases

What does Blue Horse shoe love?- Blog search of "BHL"