Friday, September 26, 2008
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September
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- cspan
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13 comments:
Base building, no? This feels good. Look at KRE.
Yep... that is a base.
It's that no short rule, can't find sellers, except the panic kind.
Bears ran out of money?
I can't figure it out.
you know what else.. we could be getting the reverse effects of end of the quarter redemptions. They are selling the shorts to pay for end of the quater redemptions on the regionals.
overall I'm stumped...
When you say "selling shorts", you mean "covering"?
That kind of makes sense.
It seems to me, as I've said before, the retail banks should be okay as long as we keep putting money into our passbook accounts. I doubt their will a run on every bank. FDIC puts a bid on regional banks.
In the financial sector, KRE is the safest option to play long.
But tony, in a cascading break of confidence, it only takes a rumor to destroy a bank.
Some say this is a "solvency issue", banks are a confidence game...
they are all insolvent.
but that is the rule of the game, they are playing by the rules...
Lame to punish them for being what we ask them to be...
it's like punishing FNM FRE... they are our frankenstein monster... Why not love them...
;)
I'm full of funny this morning.
Sure, but if you must own financials, FDIC protects KRE holdings. The US gov't will go bankrupt before passbook and checking deposits are hit.
Sure, they are all leveraged, but relative to JPM, C, MS, etc, KRE is safer. Less wild swings, easier to go long.
When I talked about populist Laissez-faire sentiment, sinking us. and cutting our nose off to spite our face... and how people don't get that it's the banking system we are helping, and that they are closly linked to that system..
Listen to cspan, and they do that opinion segment... People are pissed.. Rightfully...
but.. we have to be big kids... we are all in this boat together.
The populist sentiment is gaining steam as House republicans want a private sector solution. This will take weeks to hammer out.
So who will fail and who will not. This is like Bailey Building and Loan hoping to keep their doors open for one more day.
The safest bet is something like HCBK. They have little bad debt and will survive when the dust settles. If all their competition goes under, so much the better. If the fed lowers rates again, so much the better. If taxpayer dollars flood the market, so much the better. HCBK benefits in any scenario.
The strong regionals will be higher 6 months from now. It's a lock. That is a guarantee from me. (And I never do that.)
a private solution will drag this economy out weakly for years.
Then buy gold, dude.
Copper.... Maybe
Which brings up another meme: materials.
They are as weak as financials this week, down like 12% or something.
No matter what happens with the "bailout", it's becoming pretty clear that a global slowdown or recession is bing factored in.
Which sectors do well, or poorly, in this phase?
here is the materials problem.
cyclicaly every "bottom" in them, should be a dead Kat bounce... Till after the market bottoms.
secularly, they are in an uptrend.
So, that is the bet.
If bottom.... materials. Else something eles.
Banks continue to be in an uptrend... That arn't going bankrupt.
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