I woke up from my nap, saying I was optimistic and it was time to put some money to risk.
I just got some word on the street saying "it's different this time"... my impulse is to fade that. My feel is that a deal gets made, and things work out.
I've warned that every 40 years we make a huge mistake... or a series of disasters. the populist sentiment on this to "Fuck Wall street" is very much in line with that.
As the Fools who believe in "decoupling" learn the 40 year lesson..... decoupling of wall street and main street is a myth. It was obvious that congress could either be showboating, or are so fucking ignorant, they will buy it.
I see all this Anti Rescue/Bailout sentiment, Which is an absolute death to the economy. After the presidents speech... I wonder how many people really will throw their money into the mattress, and we will finally get the 40 year reckoning.
I have some bets on the table.... but I'm thinking about in no way going all in....
This crazy idea that we "won't bail out the economy"..... this is the 40 year old foolish flood.
I hope I'm wrong, but I'm willing to miss out on the rally.
maybe I'll feel different in the future.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Some word on the street
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I was optimistic all day today, but got more worried later in the day.
The later it got the more freaked out I became.
So I'm sweating and nauseous now.
Bush did not instill confidence.
I don't know what to day....
it could be over reacting...
I have about 5 grand rolling right now..
Did I say "this populisum and not helping the banks, is the 40 year flood"
HOPEFULLY we get trough it, but hope is not an investment strategy.
I was just emailing with my friend from MS... even he doesn't understand the bailout...
and has the "populist sentiment"
Wow, I thought you really meant you were optimistic.
I have 43k in. And a tech and a bank of all things! On edge here...
What does your friend do at MS?
This could be the best costanza trade you will have on me.
from a risk reward stance, this is aweful.
The pattern is 'the low is in' and things are good and sentiment should ease.
things will get better...
Maybe this is aversion.
See, the thing is for me this would be a straight trade, not against my "belief" for the moment. I actually felt good and confident. shit and damn it.
Do the opposite, do the opposite arghh
They lulled me into complacency.
I don't....
the question is if you believe in the 40 year flood or not.
I dig tony, but it's this paranoid notion that "the fat cats need to suffer, and they are trying to skrew us"
and the idea that somehow punishing the "fat cats", isn't going to Kill every one of us, is what may cause the 40 year flood.
I wrote about it on my blog when there was the AIG bailout.
I said the fat cats won't suffer. You have to jail them to punish them (won't happen).
So the 'main street' suffers and feels satisfied from the revenge?
I miss my childhood :)
this could just be the epic.
It's different this time trade.... To fade..
I miss being a kid too.
Main street.. and Congress... it's Lizard brains. cut off their nose to spite their face.
"most congressmen realize that they have to get this done before tehy leave".... the fact that is the debate... is scarry... they think they could walk out.
Maybe they just want to change a few things.
Lots of people are calling for a depression, saying we need the cleansing. I didn't enjoy my first depression.
However, I can see why a lot of main st. is pissed. If it's all going to be nationalized and people will be taxed more because of it, they must get something in return, like in Europe.
Your healthcare is an outrageous scam.
Is it paranoia when they really are to get you?
I admit that my sentiments are that deep in my soul I would be okay with a scorched earth policy on this issue... let's see everyone squirm. But I know it won't happen. A deal will get done and that's for the best. I can dream though, can't I?
You two seem more glum than I am. TK has wandered out on the ledge, too.
It seem to me-- and I could be totally off-- this is the classic "blood in the streets" trade. There is a lot of cash on the sidelines and it has to get allocated somewhere.
The Joint Economic Committee is all just theatre for the representatives to badger Paulson and Bernanke, but then pass a bailout in the end. Very similar to the S&L thing when I was in college. It's the game Washington plays.
I'm net long. The system will work.
Tony,
we haven't had the washout, and everyone's expecting a big drop. They need a drop to be convinced that it's the time to buy.
Others are sensing an opp. to go long for a trade, but not many and only for a very short trade.
Overall, yeah - feeling pretty gloomy.
I wasn't saying the paranoia is unjustified...what i was pointing out is that Main street's reaction is the same....
and we could cut our nose's off to spite our face.
Live without noses for 10 years.
"We will show them"!!!!!
My mojo says we will make a deal.
That's what they want, then that's what they'll get.
It's not about what we "need".
I feel like a traitor/torn on this. I want the temporarily easy way out but also see it as the road to hell.
What was the vix 35 today?
I've been pointing out for days, that most of the time... we get "The deal"
then we get the Jump off the cliff trade into a knife catch.
Just a sweet Double bottom...
I think traders want a nice quick 5-10% discount to take the risk... Once there is a Plan... If they hav a deal tomorrow, we could get a nice spike low.... as they put it off we could keep drifing lower..
that could be the trade...
It's also easy calling this the "Aversion trade in our developing a nice healthy bottom.
My friend from MS, who pays more attention to Politics than I do, pointed out that the adjustments to the bill wern't that bad... and he is right.. they just want a "fraud" clause in ceo compensation. Less golden Parachutes...... Etc..
The economic enima...
I still think we have suffered the enima for 10 years...
I also think... the disaster that is our "system" doesn't need "the great depression" to fix it... all that will do is give us larger problems to solve than health care.
Health care is the cherry on top of the cake, and not... what you get when you are digging in dumpsters for books...
We're always trying to avoid the enema.
Congress will sign legislation, but they have to grandstand for a little while. I'm actually heartened by the questions they asked today.
Our fiat currency will take a hit with this bailout. We'll pay for this for the next generation with substandard infrastructure, shitty health care coverage, rotten schools, poor mass transit, weakened currency, etc. But we'll survive, in a sense.
Sure the market may capitulate from here, but we could also be at a tradeable low based on sentiment and cash. It's "bottomish." I'm not sure how Monday's upcoming Jewish holiday will affect trading tomorrow and Friday, though.
I can see traders not wanting to miss the bump up when the bill passes. Greed >> Fear?
Net long, but watchful.
Nobody is bigger than the market, we have suffered the enema for years.
LEH collapsed, Bear is effectively gone. CFC gone, AIG cut in Two.
I was trying to throw up a legit Red flag here. Danger Danger Danger...
I've got better Mojo on this than before...
but it's spooky
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