well we had an attempt to correct today... and it was meager.... umn.....
one could say that this was the "B" wave of the ABC correction... and we get a huge run tomorrow...
or... we are in alot of trouble.....
Cramer keeps saying "I've never seen this before" The interesting thing is that Cramer never traded the 70's so when the general tries to fight the other wars... he hasn't fought this one.
I heard that "this is the most forecasted recession ever"... but the accounting for that is that this will be a depression. it's what a super cycle recession is. Hopefully it won't be the 30's... it's time to break the lows.... Then we will be range bound for a quarter... then we should leg down again..
if this has been wave 1, this is super bearish. The thing about a crash of course is that there is so much short interest... they they have to buy stock..... the dangerous thing in a market is the idea that it can't go down... like housing prices... they couldn't go down till they did. Short interest should always keep some kind of bid in the market.... all the derivatives.... hard to see it happen.
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
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2 comments:
Morning Eric,
Wow, things are not looking good today, Dow future down by 150 points with the news on Carlyle Capital is unable to Reach Deal With Lenders. Dollar also fall below 100 Yen, I am just sick and tried of this kind of volatile market, there is no any clear direction, when you think all is settled with Fed injection and will probably rebound to 12500, then all of a sudden a bad news come.
Poor uncle Ben, this is really a rough call for him to decide how much for the rate cut. 50% would be too little and fail to satisfy the Wall street giant while 75% will bring further deterioration to the Dollar index .
Mellisa, As erratic as I am..... and exhausted as I am.... I'm looking for the ultimate pivot points like we had at up 150 yesterday.... These Violent up-moves are likened to the violent down moves in the Bull markets..... and it does show clear direction .... Down.
We will go down and retest 11700... and probably break it move down to the low 11K Then we will probably bounce hard... back to 12500 or 12300.
the next rally should be playable from the long side.. "more than 3 days".. but it won't happen till next week.
These are my crystal ball projections. Sure we don't have a specific catalyst to make you believe in the down move... but how about the fact the banks just can't lend. We will probably head down until they can.
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