First of all, The weak shorts are still afraid to be short into the fed... Tend to re-initiate after.
When the Vix hits 30ish the hedges tend to start dumping puts.....
We continue to be oversold... and it's tough to unwind it.
Also... If CNBC thinks something is going to happen.... there is no easier call than to be contrary.
But this is tough.... that vix hike can indicate a low.... But.... thought it's hard to say it does get higher... One would also think that we would see increasing volitility...
but it is hard to argue against it as a ... near term low...
Monday, March 17, 2008
quite a few things going against a decline
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2 comments:
This market is hard to figure. I cannot ever remember this much schizophrenia!
I agree with your appraisal of the shorts and the sentiment going into fed day. How much is priced in?
The financials are toxic, but GS at $150???? Man that is tempting. GS is absolutely, unequivocally no BSC! But the I'm talking my book, as you say.
If the economy is tanking, then shorting oil is the next phase. DUG or short XLE. No resession has ever seen a sustained increase in oil, no?
I think it will take the "margin calls" to get commodities down. So... No Dow 11300... commodities will keep ramping.
I expect us to be "Range bound", for 3 years or so... Between say 11k and 12k. And float between them with a lower ceiling each quarter as "Higher Input costs" take a larger bite out of earnings.
But... I'm talking my book.
A move down to 11300 and confirm the 20% loss in the market... sure would scare some people....
All these ridiculous bounces seem bearish.
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