Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Monday, March 3, 2008

I posted some comments on market motion over the next year

My Fuzzy intellectual...bullshit modeling says heavy losses in October. when we don't see strength at Xmas.
Some people would say we are headed for 9K.... The Muni Bonds, Fed being out of bullets to convince us with inflation that things are fine and other indicators seem to indicate that kind of bearishness.
But with commodities continuing to try and haul us up... It just seems like they will print money... and with commodities being priced in dollars... it's hard to see this market going down "TOO" far.
it's an interesting question.... As I've referred in the past this is what I expect out of the "inflation Trade"....
Ultimately the inflation will feed on everything, higher labor and input costs will crush those increased earnings..... spreading the money across the economy.... maybe having a Null effect on the economy.... I'm just trying to think through what the "Stagflation" trade... Could be.
I still think we have 1270 or 11500 in us at least.

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