You all have missed my past 4 days of Running this idea through the "Wash cycle" in my brain.
What I show here is a Decay pattern. Red lines Showing Despair, and the other lines showing "hope"
white line- Obama will be elected hope.
Green line- Obama has been elected, hope he can save us, Hope.
Yellow lines-Geitner has a plan to save banks. followed by Geitner shows us the plan.
small blue line- government is going to pay every one's mortgage... hope.
All the red lines show us despair, as we come to realize... Hope don't pay the bills.
For the most part it's a decay pattern for "Hope", as a decay pattern, despair needs to resolve the pattern.
Sunday, February 15, 2009
Sentiment- Decay pattern
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2 comments:
Yeah, I like the lines and the commentary seems pretty close to true. On Friday I was thinking the same thing, as we gunned for 8K at 3pm and fell short I could smell the despair. The first week to fall short of 8K since November cannot bode well for sentiment in the coming week.
I'm "hoping" (god I hate that word) for capitulation. But if it doesn't come this week, no biggee. We'll just watch the pennant get narrower and narrower...
The real problem is that day-trading is arduous with all the chop. I can read it for two or three moves, but then get shellacked on the next move, brutal.
I think I'll just put out some swing trades this week with three longs and three shorts and watch for the breakout, like you said last week. If four of the six lose money it would be okay because the one breakout would make up for it. Just a thought. And it would reduce the excessive trading I've been doing.
I'll put up some charts later tonight: GOOG, KFT, PM, maybe BSX and BEC.
I've been watching many of those stocks... Starting to feel like "Short term" they have run a bit hard... It's also looking like.. I'm not sure if you follow this, but the number of musical chairs are getting smaller. Less of the Healthcare are outperforming, and they are also showing weakness at the wrong times.
I'd have a thesis that they all need to shake out with another good down trend to find new buyers.
I'm working on a post about sentiment. I promised myself I would Meditate on it for a few hours this weekend, and it's gone about 4 hours now.
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