Who trusts their money with him... I love the guy, "Dow 9000, Come on In... the water is fine."
"yesterday when uncle ben said 'we arn't going to nationalize the banks' "
How long have I been pounding the table on this... when was that release a week ago?
Umn.... I guess he watches Fast money.
So... Cat is out of the bag It seems...
What does that mean? "the lemmings are starting their run",
What does that mean? Its mostly over as a move.
the targets start at 8.60... this isn't a clean pattern it's different.
Random story, I was talking to a friend of mine who works at MS. He was struggling with efficient markets. I started up with modern economic theory... It was like I was talking about space Aliens. Funny how it seems like to some people Economic theory hasn't moved much past Ayn Rand and Adam Smith..... That was like a thousand years ago.....If economics were Medicine, those doctors/economists... would still be amazed by antibiotics...... LOL....... Don't get me wrong antibiotics are great
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Steve Grasso
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If Jack Perugian is in the highest tax bracket, well, that would be the biggest injustice of the financial ponzi scheme.
WFC and BBT, go-go twins. (There's your jinx, dude.)
Isnt' it a bitch to sort out your euphoria from the markets...
I wrote a letter to the editor, that I have to re-edit. that will have me distracted today.
I was a little iritated earlier that bbt was outperforming wfc.
Perugian is now defending "random walk on the news" with "arugments about Technicals for the "bounce on the budget"
Cause the market loves a war on the uberclass... and that just doesnt fit the Rorschach
lots of spelling mistakes in that last one.
I don't know if it's something you realize, but the people who purchased this morning.... Need to take some Pain.
how would the market be the market if the trend chasing pete nigerians of the world didn't take some pain.
If only the rest of the market would stop hauling the financials down
I just got a raise today. Chubb (CB), a long term holding in a DRIP and whose divvy I use to pay my expenses, just raised their dividend.
What would Kudlow say? Mustard seeds.
I think I just got sick to my stomach with you talking about kudlow.
I want to run off and see a movie today...
If we follow the sentiment cycle, at one point we should get another aversion cycle in the micro....
We had a down day yesterday, I like the way the market is nervous... it shows good lack of conviction....Either that or we are fucked and the world is ending.....
I almost e-mailed TK saying "The market would go up if you keep saying 0-BOMB-A.
but the market tends to top when I Don't want to puke them up.
In a short term/micro sense... we have to ask ourselves. "Where are we in the sentiment cycle?"
Hey, I'm just trying to check on you. Make sure things are ok.
OK, you?
Well, if this isn't the worst sentiment in my lifetime! I guess we'll just print a 666 on SPX and get it over with!
I'm great actually, I think we will fight this off.
Worse case I go flat on anything left on the table this week.
*shrug*
see I think this is roughly a basing pattern. and we are just in a short term aversion phase
I feel the same way. WFC bounced off my horiz support that I drew on my graph 12.45 and headed back up.
I know you don't like horiz supports, and I see your point, but it is interesting.
I don't have VWAP on my charts, but it would be interesting to know what that is.
I'll give you the chart... buddy buddy buddy, it's like tlo says.
it's important because other peopel find it important. but you want to recognize how they trade, and "game them" the h support people are just the simple lemmings in the market
Sure, but it is a confirmation that people are looking at that level. The trendline: looks like WFC should come back to the lower edge of trendline is at 14 now or at least closer to it even if it fails. No?
If I say it's different this time will you laugh?
bust open mamis, the sentiment chart and not the one with the B levels and c levels, look at the bottom...
Notice that it shows we trade "with chop"
Meaning the trends and stuff will be a horror show, but mostly we can "buy the dips" or buy the down legs as I've been saying.
what happens is very darwinian. The trading gets harder and harder. you have the horizontal traders, the dump ones. they get blown out in say the first third of the decline. then it's left to the Moving average people. They get blown out after 2 thirds of the pull back.
then we have the Trendline traders, they get blown out at the end.Like now. the trends are horror shows, and even the pattern traders are geting fucked with.
but I'm a fucking Genious, and I know that all of that is a signe of the end... I think that we can just "Buy the dips". which is what you do in a bull market :)
day trading keep to it. Invest as needed. But at one point we will shake everyone OUT bulls and bears.
there just isn't anyone else to sell.... except yesterday... Stevie the bull got suckered into it... so we have to down leg.
I'm just trying to be clear.
It seems at this point in trading, we have to just throw out all the rules. Knowing that will keep you one step ahead. but thinking that that is the true sign of the bottom.
"if it doesn't scare you out it shakes you out."
we are going to try and shake everyone out. stevie the bull, brian shannon, me, teresa, everyone...
KNOWING THAT we can suggest where we are. Everyone wants to quit right now. the market will trade as diabolically as it can
let us talk about sentiment cycle, in the micro sense.
with the financials making what may be a bottom last friday.
the bottom is point c.. give up phase.
which is followed by
point d. denial of the positives.
then point DD, renewed beliefe in negatives.
followed by aversion point e.
...
then we get positive price action and we get into positive sentiment...
don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to fade T-lo... all I'm saying is that in a way all the indicators and models should fail.
Comment of the day:
"A 12 year closing low. We now have 12 years of stock sitting on top of us. Maybe we go back to 1000 where the big 1982 breakout happened." --TK
I think he's gone. As far as I can tell he's still holding onto Citi-- bought at 3.77; okay not as bad as Dick Bove recommending it at 20, but geez. Look at his other holdings: HOKU, HL, SOLF. I'm not dissing him, but it shows what a brutal market this is when a cagey veteran can get stunned like a deer in the headlights... just staring at the screen as his net worth of 40 yrs goes to money heaven.
I can't do anything but day trade. The last week I did fine, some longs, some shorts, some held for 2 hrs, some for 2 days. Brutal but I figure if I can survive this, eventually it will get easier. And I'm worn out.
I appreciate your charts on WFC. I really thought it would hold the 12.45 level. I didn't trade any banks today, except some FAZ in the afternoon. Rode BMC and AMZN long all day-- trend trade. Cash over the weekend. Scalps are all my stomach can handle; I know it's not glamorous.
discouragement. What is going on is that, instead having panic Buy-ins.
we are getting discouragement buy ins.
Everytime they are this miserable, it is a bull signal.
everybody is playing very short term, anytime they hold something nobody else will and everything Mean reverts.
that is the way this is going. I wish I had picked thme up at the close, cause it keeps paying to do so.
every time we close on the lows we get a bounce.
Now that we have done that we want to look at the uptrend... but short term, till "they" get wind of it, and sell it to them.
the sell offs are on low volume, for that very reason. they buy them then when they are in the hole they sell it. ant the market just melts down.
It's like the king of the week stock holders. No mater what it seems like we will just move sideways.
I heard a ton of bullishness today, and it didn't bode well, but now at the close, everybody is miserable, Pete Nigerian, TK, etc.
so next we just need steve grosso to buy and we can sell.
I have an EWT chart I'll show you. but regardless of what it says... CHOP... Untill we get some form of choppy uptrend.
that is my thesis.
Also, usually when we have a bear flag, after that we get "A bottom"
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