so... My supposition is this is the hardest part of the market kids...
All I know how to do is stick to my models. and accordingly this was the last chance for a bottom.
I still like the idea that we don't get capitulation till everyone stops being angry.
Trading with TK:
I didn't see TK this angry when we went down the other 7000 points during the past year. Let us point out that since he was elected.. we are only down 1000 but 2000 since he won.
He is in over his head. We are down almost 2000 pts since he was elected and he still doesn't get it. Very oversold short term and intermeiadte term so I expect a bounce but only a bounce. Unless he does something drastic which I don't think is in the cards.
.... Michael Farr has quit... "I'd rather play Las Vegas."
On another note... all of this is socialisum, if not worse Lemon socialisum... PST..... that is what the market wants "Socialisum for the rich, and capitalisum for the poor"
10 comments:
The TK sentiment meter just clicked to green. When he typed "O-BOMB-A" I saw the light go on.
T.Lo's objective sentiment indicator is looking more bullish, too.
Unfortunately the fundies still suck and T.Lo's only technical winners are PCLN and MYL (other than gold and inverse funds.)
How do we play this scenario? I may the day off tomorrow. FAZ hit it's daily high after hours.
I'm warn out and hope I was in cash...
I can't figure out what that means.
Nothing in this market looks good?
think that could be good fro a bounce?
I own some stuff but think I'm going to end up flat on it. or lose...
I'm mostly trying to figure out if T-lo has been hedging, or if I just keep getting bad reads. but she did say "touchdown" and yet... she doesnt' sound optimistic.
I have this small idea that we may get a bounce for a few days... I can't bring myself to read sentiment off of the blogs...
We are finally BIG time Depressed...
I'm cautious about the idea that we had a deadcat bounce.
I want to take the day off and pretend that tomorrow isn't going to happen.
I guess I have no read :)
if you can figure out sentiment let me know... I cant even work up the courage to look at that wedge...
there is every chance we will just melt down for days and days and days
So.. I'm looking at the charts...
I'll do a post.... it doesn't' seem that bad.... it's just tough to get the MEME from the TV out of my head...
If you look at the t-lo indicators, also notice that there is a divergence of fewer lows, and less sells indicators... but..
still room to go lower, and room to get a dead cat bounce too.
things feel like death. 8 down days...
Yeah still room to go down, but the sentiment is more bullish.
It may too late to get aggressive with shorts. All her sell-stops were inverse etfs, except MYL and PCLN and some gold miners. Even the biotech is off the winners list.
I think you're right, we need a catalyst and a market leader. I really thought tech and healthcare would do it, but GOOG, BSX and MRVL all disappointed.
Pete put up UNH and it is up after hours. Also, OCR looks promising. I'm still holding some BEC.
They may still be (chips, healthcare)leadership,and all the market needs is them to get some bids, the banks could put in a bear flag or something...
there is a chance...
I've also been trying to work on this "Bear Despair" indicator... every time we have a nice slide of just desperate depressing misery... we get a nice bounce out of it. even a nice Bear flag or a 700 pt reversal... just some short term reversal.
I thought he was bearish on UNH... fuck... sometimes... It just takes too much energy to disambiguate that stuff.
I think he's bullish on UNH: golden cross, outperforming market since November...
I think he's trying to show some divergence too but I agree sometimes he's not very clear.
I'm just on one of my things about them... I was super cautious and felt more disciplined in July. that and I was just like "this market is fucked" and she was all optimistic, and seemed to have a good play book.. Suddenly she is all "Get out of the market" and we are headed for japan....
And I'm like... I knew that in July, and now you boast about how you knew about zombie banks in November. then I was sure they can't wipe out shareholders with nationalization on banks, and she starts talking about it in Jan... finaly she realizes that it is just going to have to be zombie banks...
and I'm just like... You spend 3 months trying to talk me out of something, only to decide I've been correct all along.
then there start being little distinction between sentiment, and her sentiment...
and overall, it's just the screen that is useful...
and the reason it is useful is because Roughly it's the same screen everybody uses... so you know what "everyone is doing"... and you just have to be ahead of it.
And obviously... it's mostly that this crazy action in the market and all the bullshit on T.V. that is getting to me... I swear to god I can only take about 30 minutes of CNBC at a time, and I want to kill people.
but... seems like if we are still angry.... we are not to capitulation...
I'm on one of my things about...
There is a lot of hedging...
this is going to give you the hebie gebies, but the downside target on the breakout of that Pennant nov-Jan, is like 58 on the spy...
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