Just remember, everybody is waiting to cover at 740.
after that the games start
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
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5 comments:
Are we in wave 5 now?
That seems too easy... short and cover at 740 and we bounce up to 900. Way too easy.
What if we pull out of this now and meander back up to 860 again then down again. Thousand cuts with no washout?
it could take 3 more days but there is no support from 780 to 740. It could take most the morning to get through there tomorrow.
That is an ABC correction, but the A leg and the C leg are usually the same length(but it's just a WAG).
Those 860 highs are a double top(and the target is 740). All that is happening is we are grinding through 780 right now.
I think we go 750 then bounce back to 800 or 780, then retest and break the low(maybe). Then they can bring Yammada out of the broom closet that they keep her in, and she can play with the crazy chart on fast money, and we can get a bottom.
trading tough, and there are a zillion cuts between here and there. People are not scared, people are still Arguing, and Angry, and bargaining, Hopeful.... ETC... Sentiment wise we are HELL AND GONE... I want Dylan to give up. that will be a bottom... when he gives up all his "The market needs transparency" that could be a good bottom
you are trading a few more days ahead of me.... I'm just trying to get through tomorrow and the next day. I'm not calling 740 as a bottom. But with no resistance from here to there, that is one hell of a Free fall, and the bungee cord should be quite stretched. .... You know this game, we hit it, everyone calls "Double Bottom" and we come back... Get that nice "Tipple Bottom", then we break the low, they all freak out.....
and then we bounce...
You have to realize that we sort of numb our emotions each time, and to get a good "Wash out" it has to surprise them.
Also realize the natural selection that has gone on for the past year, as the bad technicians get blown out, or get better. Trading is going to just keep getting harder and harder.
As I sit here, I am warming up to the idea... that this could go on for another month..
Also remember Feb is a great month for people to be depressed, so this is an excellent time for it.
But with that "Thousand cuts" trade, this could drag out.. We have seen that before, where it just drags and drags and drags...
That seems about right for sentiment.
But.... One step at a time, deal with the "Now" we should hit the 750-740 level, and get a solid bounce... after that... who knows. But it wouldn't surprise me to either Dump down there fast, or to grind it out.
As bearish as everybody is... seems like it could be time for a fake out.
All the indicators look good, T-lo's volatility indicator is as healthy as I've seen it. and I doubt we will make as many new lows as we saw in November.
By "indicators looking good" you mean that they are not bearish enough (yet), right? I would agree.
I know there isn't this really wash out sentiment, but man it does smell of discouragement. I could see a sizable bounce here to resistance of 860 or so and then a fall through support.
Here's a call for 660:
http://tinyurl.com/cg6w9y
OK OK it's not exactly Yamada but it's a good warm-up act.
Just looking day-to-day for now... I really have no opinion beyond that, I'm just trying to flesh out contingencies. It seems that everybody is truly expecting 740 very soon-- even poor Lichtenstein concedes it-- and that seems too simple.
Related note: did you see the post about how the DJIA is now mostly IBM since it's price weighted and the financials are all single digits?
I've heard the 600 calls, it's what kept us up all day....
LOL
What I ment about indicators being good, I just mean... this isn't "Crash Positions", this is a standard low on less 52 week lows. Says we are working on the "Real Bottom"
We need a nice "Gloomy... hearwrenching drop down 300 pts." so we can get some of the people with a little sad tear in their eye. Then we will get a small bounce.
I'm with you on "it will be more diabolical than 740, but don't let it suprise you. and this pattern seems like it wants to resolve soon.
But "Grind" maybe as diabolical as it will get. but...
but look at TK, and the hope of the closing low holding and the 2003 low or all that other Mojo.. many traders out there like that.
you probably went to bed before you realized T-Lo has a podcast.
she did give a chance for a rebound to the spy 80, or under the pennant.
also a "Chance" of something diabolical.
but most likely the regular.
I swear if we bounce to 80 I'm going to want to jump.
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