Let me just say.... I think it's definitive.... we are finding a bottom....
is it 2000 points below? I don't know....
Did we hit it? I don't know....
It's not good that we made a new low on a wed...
I do tell you there is one hell of a lot of fear.
Have I mentioned I work to0 hard to go through this...
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Unreal
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Increasingly more difficult days, true.
Vix over 36, wow.
Short rule might help put in that bottom, you think?
Day trade only...
there are some great opportunities.
What has me is that we put in bottoms on mondays or tuesdays...
and usually options week.
So... Maybe next monday as part of options week.
Or this could go till October.
Or maybe a 40=45 spike in the vix.
besides day trading, stay out, that is all I have to say.
I would think that sentiment would have turned the market.
So... Maybe...
There are a ton of things that buying $1000 worth of them will return in time, and seems like a great investment. You can have some faith. but... things can still get nasty....
You asked about crashing. The interesting thing is that, there are times in bear markets that things get ridiculous, and then snap back in short order.
We can see tomorrow, but I bet down 200 futures, and more selling.
We may have to have worst sentiment than we had on july 15, Which honestly we have yet to match. regardless of the vix.... We may need crying, and begging.
Can we have a crash while *everyone* is saying we'll have a crash? I can't figure it out - will it be reverse psychology or self-fulfilling prophecy.
I'm trying to daytrade only.
Holding 2 gold stocks, but plan to ditch them SOON.
I'm not saying crash. I am saying I don't know, one can say that and it's a contrary indicator.
What can happen is we can drop down to 9k for 3 days, and then reverse.
But the sentiment right now is "why play"... but I don't know what anyone is waiting for. Wall street is confused and there maybe some feedback loops, there do seem to be some feedback loops in emotion, which could be creating feedback in the market.
Feedback loops are death.
Hey.... don't be scared.
Too late :)
I'm so scared that I started selling my long-term losers. Afraid they'll go even lower, down to the last 1%.
This morning when MS and JPM and GS were going down so quickly, I didn't even want to participate in that. It seemed like easy money and it probably was, but it was so scary.
First, I'm betting intervention in the morning.
The president is on the phone getting ready to drive up inflation as we speak. Credit markets are locked, they aren't going to have a choice but to cut.
Like I said Libor eased, but with the 400 point drop the fed will have to ease because the bba(british bankers) are going to tighten more.
I thought there would be a cut yesterday.
What a psycho week.
So far everything is happening exactly opposite to what everyone expects :) It's almost funny.
has it only been a week.... feels like a month...
It's been 2 weeks at least.
Well its good it's oposite time cause everyone is looking for the crash.
What we need is a flat day. To calm everyone's nerves down.
http://upsidetrader.blogspot.com/2008/09/crazy-daze.html
"even I got tired off shorting the financials today"
ha! me, too
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