Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Friday, September 5, 2008

Treasury Is Close to Finalizing Plan to Backstop Fannie, Freddie

Here is the story
Precise details of Treasury's plan couldn't be learned. The plan is expected to involve a creative use of Treasury's new authority to make a capital injection into the beleaguered giants.
The Treasury Department has been working with bankers at Morgan Stanley to use its newfound authority, granted by Congress in July, to devise a way to prop up the mortgage giants, which have been pummeled by investors in recent weeks.

Treasury Is Close to Finalizing Plan to Backstop Fannie, Freddie

7 comments:

Tony said...

Geez, I hope you didn't go for the FNM lotto ticket... the deep end of the pool indeed.

How much will the tax payers be on the hook for?

Will this spell the end of the dollar rally?

Eric said...

I have enough sketchy Regionals, to count as lotto tickets, and a grand in WM.

How are you?

The dollar is more a metic of our economy vs the other ones. But you have to ask yourself 'Where is it going' 2 to 1 verses the euro? That is just stupid.

Like I've said, Decoupling is crazy talk. Russian debt affected us, Asian Debt, Mexican debt... all of these things affected us. So why won't our problems spread.... And economics, don't particularly know Boarders.

And the remaining CDO's are spread across the Planet like the plague.

People want to jump to the conclusion it's a "Bail out". We will make money. There are a ton of possibilities, and the losses are a maximum few hundred billion... and that is probably overly dramatic.... and we will make that up.

And still, we should see stagnant growth. It's not like all is clear.

I wouldn't bet against the Dollar,

But that doesn't mean that earnings for Oil or Materials are over, They are still in demand, and very profitable... they just won't get the benefit from weak dollar too.

Eric said...

I hope you realize how much value there is out there.

Eric said...

seems like it could be time to ring the register on xbi.

I wasn't even paying attention to it today.

Tony said...

XBI dipped below 62 today but clawed its way back...

I took profits in HP short yesterday-- too soon! But I'll hold my KBR short for now.

I still have some regionals ASBC, HCBK and KRE long.

Also holding FXP (short China ETF) for now, but took profits in EEV way too soon. Damn.

Many losers: LSCC, FBR, among others.

Store of value? Not sure where the market is going short term, but KRE and regionals looked to have bottomed.

I'm just not sure I want to try to catch the materials falling knife--- yet; I think I'd rather sit that one out for now.

Lots of value, but sentiment is lousy and likely to get worse.

I agree with your world view... decoupling is insane. How much more bad debt is out there? And who has it?

Franny takeover: strong housing and financials, weak US dollar.

Eric said...

Keep your eyes open....

If you look at the xbi chart... Once a short has hit that "pause" in the middle, then after it goes into that second freefall... all the low hanging fruit is gone. Tighten stops and take your winnings.

Tech has yet to have that "Valuations are great" pause on the way down.

But, Financials want to break into the 24 xlf, oil is in despair, and materials, "The baby is out with the bathwater"....

so many things are ready to Kick to the upside.
So, keep your eyes open, and be ready for some base building in all the favorites.

I hate this "dollar Bear stuff"... There could be a small kick back, and some minor range trading. but that dollar bear bet is a DOG! There could be some dollar downside, but not much.

What did someone say? "The U.S. Economy has peaked."
Then someone from London whispered "The UK peaked in 1800's, but it's still a nice place to live."
someone from "Holland" said, "Holland Peaked in the 1400's" and it's still a nice place to live.

I don't know if you have tried to trade other markets, but many of them are so Illiquid, it's like trading the shitty ETF's. The US Exchanges, traded in dollars, there is just little chance of us losing our place as the Home of the "Free market", and Yes there is still more pain in the Ibanks, which will drag on and on.

There are much better trades than to waist capital on "dollar Armageddon"... The U.S. is having or has had it's "Recession Enema", and it is most probably that it's mostly upside from here.

If we did get a bottom.... you want to look for that "Wave 2" correction... and not chase a Wave 1 impulse.

and there could be more "Redemptions" and more "Margin call" letters going out next week. but don't count on it.

But also, Remember on this "Bad Mortgage debt", Most the waiters who own 4 homes, have Blown up.

I also saw a story about a local big whig that has gone bankrupt, because he was "chasing the Housing investment mania".

All the dip shits have Blown up. It's time to start cleaning up the wreckage.

Eric said...

the bad debt, if the bears are right and we are "half way through it",

We will find that half the remainder is in "institutional investors", yes, they have a Bond that is performing at 3% and not 5%... Sucks for them, but that doesn't affect Global Credit.

the other half, is going to be hidden in back shelfs of International banks. and because they can Sweep it under the covers easier than our banks... it will cause more pain internationally than it will here.

I still expect "grandson" of credit crunch to hit Europe, since The ECB is talking about "tightening" the abuse of their "discount window".

As santelli says, some people still need to come to the "market Confessional".

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