Multiple 4% Declines
The S&P 500 has now declined more than 4% in two of the last three trading days, and below we highlight all prior occurrences since 1928. As shown, the last time we had two out of three -4% days was during the '87 crash. Prior to that, it hadn't happened since 1948. The majority of the occurrences were during the Great Depression, where 3% and 4% moves were commonplace. Overall, the average performance of the S&P 500 on the day following the last -4% day has been 0.85%. Over the next week, the average performance has been 4.94%, and it has been 6.43% over the next month. Following the last 4 instances, the S&P 500 has been up the next day every time, but just 50% of the time over the next week and month.This is that sequence 3% decline, 2% decline, 5%, 20%
This pattern... Drawing a conclusion from this pattern..... is just fucking stupid... I bet you could add "3% or greater decliners in 3 days", and realize that tomorrow based on that we are due for the 20% tomorrow.....
Sorry, I'm going to vent about some of the back testing..... Realize I've posted these repeatedly, for months... and They don't even achieve 20% accuracy. To be honest this starts to be as unreliable as the human mind, They run a pattern, and talk about a possible reversal or upside edge, but as we have seen, almost every time there is a 80% chance "THE TREND WILL CONTINUE"





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