Sarah Palin Scares the shit out of the stock market, and so does mccain.
Republican Convention Means stock market go down..... It's that easy...
*snark*
that is just that Lamest game in the world
mayor of a 10K population town....
Thursday, September 4, 2008
I just love to do this
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13 comments:
If the market were up 300 pts, all he Repubs would be shreiking about Palin "lifting the market."
Invivo list is full of losers. What say ye about sentiment?
Was this just a bear market rally since July 15, and now over? Counter-trend rally is done?
My shorts are on fire, though. (I know that sounds bad.) Even TK seems rocked.
What about gold?
I've been out of it for a while, but I could make a strong narrative for it now.
With jobs gone and the consumer tanking, isn't the fed going to have to weaken the greenback further? The ECB will likewise have to reduce rates.
There aren't any more bullets left in the barrel, except to weaken the dollar and the euro. Too much bad debt, too few jobs, means we have to devalue all the debt and wages out there.
Why would ECB have to reduce the rates? They kept them steady today (i think).
Not sure of the payroll numbers or the GDP numbers coming out of Europe, and I know the mandate of the ECB is only to maintain the value of its currency, but the US economy is obviously slowing considerably-- the 3% GDP B.S. number from last week notwithstanding-- so it stands to reason that somethings got to give.
Perhaps the euro is a better play, but the US dollar looks to be going down in the short and medium term timeframes.
Is the euro better than gold? GLD under $79 seems cheap (just like GS did at $156 last week!)
European economy is doing well with the exception of maybe Portugal, Spain, but they're always poor. Easter Europe is growing like crazy, with high inflation numbers but also high spending.
Germany has probably never been better, it's flourishing.
France is doing alright.
There's no crisis there. Corporations have so much cash, they don't know where to put it.
FX is tricky, but I'm planning to stash some swiss francs, just in case. That gets you some solid gold-backing, too.
I'm out of all my gold and silver for now, and not going to bottom fish until I see a reveral on the weekly. They're in an intermediate bear market (overall, huge bull market, but their corrections are usually to 50%). Gold can get to $500 and still be in a long-term bull market.
Thanks for the input.
From a technical standpoint, the IEV (Europe 350) is terrible. I'm not sure how this translates from the economy of Europe. Maybe individual country funds would be a better indicator? I just have a problem investing in countries with economies the size of Ohio. Which sectors will outperform in Europe?
What is "FX"? Swiss Franc? I held onto my FXF thru the dollar's recent strength, but I am out of FXY (Yen) and hard assets. FXF is the only foreign currency I am currently holding. The FXF seems a better store of value long term. Maybe I should add a little to it, now?
Gold at $500? Is that a call for another 30% drop or are you just making an observation? If gold fell that much, I would think something structural had occurred in the world markets.
FX - forex. I don't do much with currencies.
FXF is what I want to buy, as opposed to actual francs. I don't want to keep them in cash and getting an account is a pain.
I'm not calling for gold to $500, but if you look at the 70's, gold retraced 50% of its move before going nuts.
France and Germany are very big economies. In fact, Bavaria alone I believe is the second largest economy in Europe, just one region. Kinda like California in the U.S.
I can't recommend anything specific, I'm not in an investing mode right now.
Btw, on your rec. I signed up for FusionIQ, going to give them a try. So far looks like they're good for longer swings.
FusionIQ: Great. I've gotten some good picks from them. I'm still unsure how to use the info. I usually read the research items, but have noticed that they often recommend long positions that are neutral in their timing signal, which seems weird to me. Let me know if you have any great insight. Their macro stuff is useful.
I'm not really in the investing mode either, but need to park some cash and perhaps FXF would be safer than money mkts or US dollar or gold/silver or TIP.
Well, it was an impressive day. The messed up thing is that I'm not as psyched to buy materials, or oil, as I'd be to buy retail or homies.
but they arn't falling at 10% per day.
I guess we just wait to buy tech.
I'll bet this market still has some moves in it.
Barry's 10K is only 2 days away like this.
we will be for sure near the lows when that list has 2 winners, and they are ultrashorts. But If we can hit 90% down issues followed buy 90% up.... that would also be a key indicator for a turn... but that is a much grimmer day than today.... Even though.... I had a great day.
The banks in the ECB have been abusing their reserve, and they will have to crack down soon.
Sounds like tradewell believes in decoupling.
tk being unhinged I think is a good sign.
Sentiment wise, Energy is working on despair/ real panic... and tech isn't there yet.
which is weird....
Eric,
like "there's always a bull market somewhere", there are countries that do relatively well, regardless of the USA (imo, of course).
Just like not every country in the world is doing great when the U.S. is well.
Any guesses as to the jobs report?
Sounds like the rumor is it's grim.
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