Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Year end effect, Christmas rally... Bla Bla Bla

......

I was interested to "clearly Define" what a Year end Rally, January Effect was/is.

I found this site.

With, Vernacular definitions, and with the Willy and hap hazard use of these words by CNBC and it's Minions. It's interesting to find it's "many definitions"

All to give one a base of what it meant.

Apparently in the late 80's, a trend was noticed. Roughly Losses, being taken in small cap stocks(and others), at the end of December then that cash being put to use in the first days of the year.

In anticipation of that(to talk about how it's now gamed) there is traditionally a rally in the last few days of Dec (The Christmas rally, which is a Rally AFTER CHRISTMAS), in anticipation of selling stock to the January buyers.

Interesting to think that the downward pressure of "HomeGamers" who sell and apply pressure into the low volume of the last weeks to the downside, Then to Buy into the first of the year.

Other definitions are for a "Jan Rally" that moves through the entire month, it being one of the best months of the year to invest historically.
Also a rally through the first few days, first week... Etc...

I just commented to tony... and I think I said this yesterday, that I'm torn between a retest of November, and a rally(with some bumps) through May... or even September.

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