We know I'm Uber Bearish...
So... the market was fairly neutral, I expected it to have some follow through from yesterday, you know... 100 pts, 200 some follow through.
There just wasn't any...
and wasn't somebody supposed to rescue gm or Chrysler today... proly in the morning or tonight.
I was trying to make a case for some ascending action, but you know an ascending triangle has to touch resistance, I can only make a case for a wave 5, and the start of some lower highs.
we have a nice impressive sell off here at the close....
I'm going to try and do a chart after I run......
the basics are that we have the 50 dma below us now.... and it's going to take a few attempts to get through it.... prolly 2 more.
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
some follow up
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2 comments:
Are wave 4's usually on lower or declining volume?
How much significance does the herd give a close above the 50 dma? Seems like this could be seen as a sign from God. (Altho declining volume in SPY is spooky. GLD, on the other hand, has increasing volume.)
I understand the bearishness going into a potential wave 5, but I'm starting to doubt a "Uber" bearish situation. Does wave 5 necessarily go lower than the wave 3 low?
Problem with volume is that it's the holidays, and it's going to not be representative, though declining is declining, but light volume should be expected.
The 50dma is important, it's been the super resistance in the market for the past year...
But like every resistance, sometimes the first violation of the resistance is a trap.... After this "Trap" then I'm happy to be bullish again. Assuming we are bearish here, next time we tangle with the 50 I'll be bullish for you :)
I guess with the Uber Bearish scenerio, we are talking the schiff/Rogers bearishness. I agree with you, I'm not that bearish, but I kid you not.... I'm not buying this market because of "inflation", that is not an investment theme.
If you look at the 70's scenario, the 74 trend was the "inflation" trade.... I'd suggest that we are more in the 71 trade, when all the brokerages went belly up, when half of them stole every-one's stock and never told them... sound familiar? it was the 71 bear that they created CIPIC for.
They keep saying "in the future" we will have to deal with Inflation, which is the same theme they would have had in 71... then in 73 suddenly we had to deal with it.... and struggled for 10 years.
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