Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Some Elliot talk

I find EWT as more of an instructive way to talk about waves within a trend, since I can throw enough BS EWT at you to take the market any direction my own Rorschach wants it to go. But for Tony This is what I'm talking about.... But What I am saying is that you normally have a momentum high, followed by a secondary high.... We should see this trend Turn like an 18 wheel semi, it should take a good half day or full day of slowness before this Up trend will end.

Here is another look.... In many corrections the A and B leg are the same length. So if after Jan 2, there is a correction. this is what it should look like... but the move is no lower than 81.5. as a correction...

As a matter of sentiment, I'm embolden by the bearishness on fastmoney tonight, they brought out the worst Technicians, and the guys who weren't bearish at the tops of this move, are of course, now bearish again, and they were bearish yesterday, and the market went up today.... so, the scepticism is good.

I also bring out carter worth who said in mid december that things were good till Jan 1.... well he is now bearish, and wants despair stage... I'd hint that maybe despair stage will be next fall or summer.

Let me also suggest that we need leadership, As of now, I can only identify semiconductors, and maybe industrials as leadership.... I've never been a fan of "Tech will save us" since it needs to be something besides "social networking" and "Cellphones" for economic growth. But I will say that besides Pharma, Semiconductors look good..... When I'm talking about leadership I'm talking about some part of the economy that there will be a ton of jobs and a new bubble...

today we did see healthcare..

If you listen to some people in the market, it does take a good sector like tech materials or financials for leadership.... and materials as part of hyperinflation doesn't count.

So... Maybe healthcare, maybe semi's, Pharma.. industrials because of the Obama stimulus plan.. could be developing leadership

2 comments:

Tony said...

Thanks.

81.5 sounds ominous, that's a 10% correction from here.

Ouch.

Pharma, biotech?

Eric said...

The market doesn't seem to be swinging on a dime, which is good....

I remember when the market was this easy to trade.

You know I hate the "cure cancer" trade, but maybe there are some "healthcare names" that could pull some bullish cycles.

If one is into devious thought, the idea of new highs is in Nobody's play book...

But then a nice retest..

overall this feels like "wall of worry", not that we couldn't have a nice retest in july-october

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