we would like to see the smh confirm the move..
Friday, December 26, 2008
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6 comments:
Good call on RIG, too. How did you know?
Looking at SLAB for semi play.
I hit TSM, for semi...
maybe retail too. KSS doesn't get enough respect... sort of the Target of the "big Lots" crowd.
Sentiment cycle, and that dimwhit Teranova... Bullish to 50, now he is bearish... and a move from 40 to 20 is a 50% haircut. that is like the move from 140-80... but to these dumbasses $10 is the same at 140 or at 30... Cause they can't do basic math....
Also.. When you see alot of "Chop" it shows the potential for a reversal. these moves in oil from 30-50 have been violent on a percentage basis.
but it's tradable, materials on the rotation cycle shouldn't hit for another year or 2
Oil.
When the recovery happens, oil will go up. There has to be a bottom to oil since production costs still have a floor-- somewhere.
If there is no recovery, then the world's central banks will eventually reflate the bejesus out of the various currencies... which will eventually raise oil.
If $36 isn't the bottom, then it's damn close.
Gold miners are enfuego, but don't think this necessarily translates to other materials, as the recent divergence in price movement shows.
Bottom calling is dangerous, I'd still say that rig may be overpriced. It was this price a year and a half ago. $70 oil and oil was still going higher...
we will see.
This whole damn game is dangerous, dude... that's why I haven't quit my job (yet).
But I understand your sentiment. My point is that oil is tangible and has a real world necessity unlike the vast majority of financial products and most services in the global economy.
As such, there is a real world bottom to the cost of producing oil and bringing it to market. I may not know where the bottom is, but I do know there is one. CDS and certain MBS, on the other hand, do not necessarily have a bottom... as we are finding out.
Also, to be accurate, 18 months ago RIG was trading at $77 and has not seen its current price for almost 4 years. Even if RIG's projected earnings were cut in half, the forward PE would still be 7.
If oil goes up from here, RIG could easily double. cash per share is $3.80 and current ratio is 1.2; the only negative is the 0.92 debt/equity ratio. There are similar numbers for other oil services. SLB actually has a better balance sheet.
The safe bets are the integrateds such as XOM and CVX only because they have no debt.
I know what you're saying, tho, and I'm still guarded about owning anything at this time.
All I'm getting at is that we have yet to see any convincing de-leveraging in the materials yet.
More countries going into default, More layoffs, More companies going belly up.
They can produce copper, iron, and oil, at a loss for years.
in the 90's copper hit .10 or so, and almost nobody afford to produce it.
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