So, tony wanted to look at this... the long term chart hmmmm may not reflect panic yet... I imagine if it gets below that spike low from october, we should see some panic.
To look at the shorter term trend, seeing it break the uptrend from the past week or so, would be a good signal. With so many people in a flight to safety, assuming there is more appetite for risk over the next few weeks, seems like the "Safe" plays should go lower.
Now if the market downtrend continues... There should be some new positive momentum in the safety names.
Sunday, December 28, 2008
GIS
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Thanks for the charts. Your appraisal is close to mine. Sure if the consumer staples rally, GIS should follow suit.
But the distribution looks more established with GIS vs others in the category.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but GIS is showing lower highs and lower lows the past few weeks since Thxgiving. Kellogg and Colgate and XLP seem to be showing ascending triangles from that period.
There seems to a stepwise take down in progress with GIS while other staples have been recovering slightly or at least stable.
Textbook January effect should bring GIS to those Oct lows. Also, I've been looking at TBT (short long bonds) but I don't think it's time yet.
My own Thesis on it would be that gis will go down as the market goes up.
but you should see segnificant resistance at that october low... also notices that long term resistance/support is in this area...
I'd say "Valuations are good".
Also interesting, and what would make me cautious is that it's gone up with the market over the past couple days... All I'm saying is that it's something to keep your eye on.
but it's low Beta... but your upside gain on the short is only maybe 10-15% Keep a close eye on it that first day of the new year...
tbt is interesting...
I heard gartman have a thesis that the banks are long treasuries into jan1... and we should see a move up after that...
but risk aversion should keep them from any major moves...
if the NFP improves significantly that will make bonds blow up
I intend to post this in the morning...
but by EWT, this correction has yet to be healthy....
More reason to be cautious.
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