Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Friday, December 12, 2008

Must be the ramble

My blog get's listed ahead of many decent blogs, there are some wierd google metrics that must go into that.

That and I get more hits when I'm showing trades and making predictions. I guess it's good, on friday I'm a mess and still am, but I did have dinner which will give me some energy for a while. In my mind I was asking myself "Is that a reversal, or am I fooling myself, and yet it's a pattern of lower lows and lower highs. I was also trying to figure out if this was a bear flag. Or if this weeks move seemed to be a Bull flag.

If I read sentiment, there is 90% optimism, as a die hard contrarian that says I'm on the right side of the trade.... Did I just say "DIE HARD"?

Todays move does fit EWT, I can KIND OF call it a Bearish EW.

Also this week's move had no type of EW form to it. Looking at the 20 day chart, I can see that nasty uptrend line... but we broke it, and are toying with it. Now.. don't I know something about when two trade channels collide the direction it breaks first is the opposite direction it has a tendency to go.... But the trend we just broke was the down trend...
Lets also point out that the current move was a greater than 50% retrace, which suggests failure.

Well, let me just say the way I read it is that this was a bear flag. But all my exits are above the downtrend line of this move, beyond the bull trap.

Of course this being "Bail out gm weekend" makes me nervous.

Let me talk my model, and that it's now friday/monday, and there is a tremendous amount of mean reversion in expiration.

No comments:

New Economic Indicators and Releases

What does Blue Horse shoe love?- Blog search of "BHL"

cnbc