I've been meditating on, what I just learned.... Tony knows what I'm talking about, I have some readers from I-Bank Coin, that I'm not interested in giving any good tips. So I'll talk in variables/pronouns.
So, I was thinking about fading what we just heard, or that there is a chance it won't happen.... But... I was thinking about it, and on a larger scale. For "This" to happen followed by what is proposed, that second thing, is absolutely the model. It all makes perfect sense.
I was just thinking about the micro trends, and for it to play out the same way in the Macro trends, is very symmetrical. I was wondering about the anomaly of the Crash Low, but this really hasn't been a crash low and to play out that way.... Certainly there are many a slip between cup and a lip, and maybe it won't play out but...
Friday, December 5, 2008
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Reading T.Lo this weekend, I've come up with a thesis for the next month.
Technicals show a bottoming pattern and the process is developing-- just no sure how far developed it is or if this is a short term bottom or something long term. I'm not concerned with anything more macro than next month.
http://kalamazoopost.blogspot.com/2008/12/santa-claus-rally-after-little-more.html
I see scant upside this week and then another test of the lows with higher volume. By Xmas we should be getting higher lows and higher highs again, ie, base-building.
Sentiment is beginning to be more positive and certainly needs another wake-up call to sober everyone up. Beyond that, the tea leaves are too clouded over.
Unsure as to the safest long sectors, but I would venture financials and materials. The best shorts: retail (I know you like retail, but I see little upside)-- but those are complete guesses.
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