So, Carter came on at the closing bell and basicly threw out my thesis.
He did say something funny "if somebody tells you what is going to happen in 7 months, walk out of the room". Just the lessening volitility, and regional banks meme.
Scares me, but Like I've said "Aversion" near term, we havn't hit it on the Macro, that is a Jan. trade.
In other news, Old GF of mine is moving to London, she just got her MBA. I've been hoping she will call and decide she is madly in love with me. But... we all know how much fun I am, with my Tired at noon, and up at 3am... That and that on the weekend I like to hide under my covers and suck my thumb.
As opposed to the woman I'm currently seeing, who I can't stand... Isn't that the way it always works. Except, I'm more indifferent to this new one than anything. She is Just uninteresting, agrees with everything I say... Irritating.
So... it has me in a funk.
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Carter Worth.... and more
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6 comments:
Technicals look strong going into NFP which is expected to be really bad.
Even with minus 350K, the market should shrug it off.
What are thoughts about factoring in another rate cut?
Looking at KRE on any pull-back.
Mdawsz,
Nobody is interested in being childish over here.
Tony,
worst case look for some sideways +/- 300 pts then maybe a sipke low into NFP. But I agree, It's not a surprise.
But moving up won't surprise me. Like game theory, the problem may be that tons of people were waiting to "Buy the Dip" on NFP, and it won't happen.
Maybe Buy the rumor it's not so bad, then Sell the news... That would be strange.
Tony,
Rate cuts, the more significant thing is the quantitative easing. They are only doing it because of the massive deflation, and it's easier to tack quantitative easing away than the rate cuts.
I absolutely agree with the Disinflation/deflation meme, Who knows what will happen in 6 months or a year. But I also think they will be aggressive about stopping inflation(or this could just be a hope)
To think that all this mayhem isn't massive disinflation, is to not realize what is going on.
the Schiff/Rogers meme of inflation may be true... but it's in the future, and I'd say in a normal cycle they would be correct, but this is super cycle.
Very odd on the Gold spike...
I think I found the reason:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20081203/od_afp/jordancrimeoffbeat_081203164339
Why can't I work out scams like that.
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