The 10 minutes of Cramer tonight that I saw.. Cramer was saying something that makes alot of sense......
To start off the cycle is that financials and Retail bottom, then materials... then Tech...
That is one reason to stay away... Probably this is most of his Thesis...
BUT.... He said something I've been trying to express forever. Let me qualify, that the money I made to trad, I made doing network management... and I still do it from time to time.... But...
Umn... Tech is dead... It's not innovative... Vista isn't being adopted because nobody smart wants it, It runs slow, and gives you no benefit. Web 2.0 is a joke, Uptimes are ridiculous. Almost every time I go to pay a bill online, either my bank, whoever I'm paying is Down.... Tech needs to have normal Multi pules... there is no growth, beyond what there is in refrigerators... The 20-30 multiples are ridiculous.... And I won't own them. they are just companies with regular growth. The infrastructure is there and isn't growing. There is some growth in mobile. But Tech just doesn't deserve the multiples it gets... and I won't be surprised if it comes back hard... Maybe this year, maybe in the next 5.... but why own it... besides Hype.... There is no growth in the need for switches or routers, and computers haven't become faster in 4 years.
Just so you know.... Maybe we get a run in them Maybe they come back.... I just won't own that crap, unless it's a fast trade.
But cramer came out and said this very thing... and I very much agree..
but come September he will say "own tech" bank on it.... The growth technology will be "Green" Technology. or alternative energy like nukes.
Umn... I don't own them... and havn't looked at them... but Semi's.... could be a buy about here... Not sure that counts as tech.
Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.
J. P. Morgan
Thursday, May 1, 2008
Cramer and Tech... and My Stimulus
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