So

..... I'm not against oil.... or the oil trade.... I just think it's over done... a $10 change in oil is big... and $20 from spring to Summer is normal... maybe even $40...
Here is the XLE for the past 3 years.... and as insane as oil has been... based on either of these trends the XLE should be 75-80.... with a stronger dollar, and less demand from us fat Americans... Which is happening.... Everyone I know drives less... I live in rural America, where we drive A LOT... and we have completely cut back. With the stronger dollar, and less consumption buy us... this should come back to 75-80 at least... this should/could be the strongest correction in this index To Date... because there is now some evidence for it to come back..... and for it to have gone hyperbolic over that past weeks... just tells me that with short covering and some of the big players doing pump and dumps.... it's going to correct...

But... Besides day trading I'm hesitant to put my money where my mouth is....

Take it for what it's worth....




Damn Bloomberg is so much better than cnbc... I actually get something from bloomberg every once in a while..





We were trying to triple oil prices in a year.... and it's not like there is an oil embargo...





140 is just too much.... I know I'm not Goldman, but 120 should be our high end... and then toy with 130 over the summer....





and a 200 thesis would take next summer.