Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Monday, May 26, 2008

hmmmm

One of the Trading Themes I follow is about PEG ratios...... I know.... I know... How does one calculate Growth? Yep, it's Chinese math. (what a disservice to math, and to progressively ridding ourselves of Racist... hyperbole).... Point being...

When you have factors like high deficits, an easy money fed and general stupidity. as headwinds against the Dollar..... When you ease one of these, it means that the Linear regression Changes, and for that to happen it has to correct......

My point is the same as it was with oil, but so as the Dollar, so as all commodities.

Sure, they all can be in a bull market, and continue to decline.... Problem is, they can't decline at as fast a rate... and as oil went hyperbolic... for some reason. it just....

Well, some of the commodities have corrected, and yet As with Oil, the Euro/dollar remains stubbornly strong.

I was doing some Euro Charting, and hopefully we are in a Wave B of a correction.... but... It was making me nervous... Maybe my nervousness is an indicator of a near term high, but seriously... some of this crazy trading....

and maybe the Euro is just following oil...

I don't mean to be a Pollyanna, perma bull... and those who follow me know I'm more interested in making money than being right...

I guess in this case, I am just a little hopeful for our economy.... I don't think it's as desperate as some would have you believe I think things are bad.... but not that bad.

also, yes the fed will cut more... but it's going to be a tough slog for the next year...

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