Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Friday, May 2, 2008


20 days on the SPX... damn this chart sucks.... What do you want for free.. and with some of my spare time... I continue to want a nice 2 day pull back..... Now you can look at that gray arrow as that pull back.... But I'd bet on a 3 day or a much larger pull back....
But what about this pull back? Well.... Selling was a smart move... Not like I sold into it... I'm not into trading aggressively .... To be honest I'm never into it.... it's a lot of work for ... Well to trade around like an asshole who doesn't know what is going on....
If you look at that blue line... it's a Completed Wave... It's the first one I've seen that was a clear completed wave.....
My mojo says don't trust it though... I expect the second pull back to be larger than the first... IE the Grey should have been larger than the blue...
Also... We usually get a set of 2 solid ABC waves... 2 solid up trends.. and we need that second leg still... Or maybe we just got it.... but it still will follow through with some weaker up trends.... IE... we are still owed a wave B pull back, and a weak wave c Uptrend.
I was working on a chart of the CRB(commodities index)... Regardless..... I say we have another leg down..... I think gold at 820 isn't impossible, though 850 seems like solid resistance.
If one was a bull... We needed some consolidation before a larger run..... Too many people were caught with their pants down on the job numbers...
Here is the thing..... If I was a dip-shit money manager.... one of those fat assholes who just sits on the sidelines and runs money into the ground... the guys who have way too much money sidelined.
The Rally we have seen Plus those job numbers... Well you put the two things together.... and I think those guys will start to take some "Tastes" of the market.....
Besides the short position against Oil and gas ..... which was not a huge position... and which is still killing me today.... or making what could have been a good day, and making it Mediocre.
I like consolidation.. it lets the leaders trade neutral, and gives them more room to run against the indexes.
I stick with my thesis that the commodities... have lost their momentum.... and must be punished....
if 100 on oil and 800 in gold is punishment.
Still the chart above... there are lots of wave counts that show more upside.... When the tide turns and I have more completed wave counts than I have incomplete.... and some more distribution.... I'll be more destructive.

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