Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Sunday, February 1, 2009

Some charts




the chart. I drew this above potential trend we could have been in.... We are about to hit that weak uptrend. The volume on the buying faded, and now has been increasing, on the sell off.(let us note that half the "top volume" was made on the downswing. The Uptrend on the daily is close, and has potential to cause a bounce.
In the minute chart, you can just see that we are in a clear downtrend, Sell offs on increasing volume, buying very weak... All bounces being mid-day corrections. BUT... We are up against the downTrend... and endo of the day we started to slow our momentum. Seems like that and being near the uptrend on the daily could cause a bounce, but more of a chance for traders to "Reload"

let us also remember my rule of threes, this will be the third time at the trend, and it is likely to break this time. A nice Negative Futures market gap could cause a nice Rebound in the morning, A little gap fade, and that could be it.... If futures are flat, we could just see some consolidation action, then resume our path down.

After listening to Meet the press, we are hell and gone from any "Stimulus", and with a nice sell off, seems like treasury will get aggressive with the "Bad bank", and a sell off should give Congress a reason to get off their thumbs.

Sentiment wise, it's going to take 750 spx to get the government off their asses, to then come up with a bad solution, to the current problems. And we are Hell and gone from "Capitulation.", If we get a turn on a Tuesday. it will be next Tuesday rather than this one.....

Emotionally we have the 800 spy level, and then that 750 low to deal with, I have no doubt both of those need to be tested and probably broken to get Real Panic. Just to throw out a Rough "Purple Crayon"... Let us just call that a developing descending... that bairly was able to retest. As much consolidation as the market had in November and december. That base should have held, and all it was was one weak ass uptrend.... Another thing that should have warned us was that that sell off in jan had no look of a Bull flag.

you can run but you can't hide.

1 comment:

Tony said...

Definitely looks like it could go either way. Trading will be arduous if this pennant plays out all week.

I guess I'll get some longs and shorts and make a plan. Here are some charts I've been looking at RIMM long, RMBS long (TK stock) and medical supply stock CMN long (rated buy by Barry). And some shorts: homebuilder KBH, retail GPS and UA, insurers HGIC and STFC.

that should keep me busy.

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