Another thing I heard this morning was a trader saying "as soon as we get a stimulus rally." we want to short it.....
as game theory... Sometimes you think we would anticipate that selling...
The pattern is 3 green bars, followed by 2 red... and yet.. we got 2 green... Maybe we only get 1 red?
But we are in a Consolidation... and It just means we Wait... but ... we can only do that for about 4 more bars, and we are then just moving like molasses. 20 pt ranges....
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
More game
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6 comments:
Obama keeps saying that perfect is the enemy of good, and that everyone will have some gripe with the stimulus package, so maybe the game theory is to sell now and then buy on the news... go long once it passes, or once the bad bank is established.
On your other thread you said to play the pennant side to side, but man that is way over my paygrade. I can hardly figure out an established trend let alone trying to switch back and forth.
Today it was all about shorting financials (again) and I'm sure I'll go to that trough one time too many... but i won't worry about that now.
Obama keeps saying that perfect is the enemy of good, and that everyone will have some gripe with the stimulus package, so maybe the game theory is to sell now and then buy on the news... go long once it passes, or once the bad bank is established.
On your other thread you said to play the pennant side to side, but man that is way over my paygrade. I can hardly figure out an established trend let alone trying to switch back and forth.
Today it was all about shorting financials (again) and I'm sure I'll go to that trough one time too many... but i won't worry about that now.
Just play the shorts down to the 800 spx... or to the other side of the pennant. 80 spy or so.
ALSO...
You can cover Half... Then put a stop on the other half where you Break even. That way you book some profits, and if we break down... you coin money. with No risk.
Of course that 300 pt upside futures trade...
But you also, when we get to the other side of the pennant 80 spy, hedge some too.. buy some Tech and Healthcare as an upside hedge, cover half your shorts...
Oh stimulus.... what is interesting is that .. It just sounds the same..
We hope for change and yet... this is just the same pork in a new sausage casing.
It makes no sense that they don't just Start with a small package of infastructure, all done on a per-capita basis.... Crank that out, then do other stuff.
I had this rant I didn't post.. When you ... You know I'm going to do a post.
The package can't be small... it has to at least appear that the "govt is doing everything it can" to save us all.
Nancy Pelosi said that if the pkge didn't pass, we'd "lose 500 million jobs"... I know it was merely a misstatement, but the hyperbole is all set.
Small package = Armageddon.
(Besides, it's only fitting that the first black president have a big package... I couldn't resist.)
They can build on it, better 6 small ones than 1 big one that doesn't pass.
I hate Pelosi. Santelli was joking about that today...
'where are we going to get the 500 million people to lose all those jobs.'(population only being 300 million)
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