I've had a nice morning BTW... I can't stand CNBC right now.. MSNBC is not bad....
My local legislature wants to create a database of drinkers... Barely mentioned is the "Big brother" aspect of this. The man proposing it, is backpeddling... but just so much as to say "Well, we swear we won't use the info for anything nefarious" like letting the church know and having them beat on our doors, or for the cops to be able to stop you and instantly know what you have been drinking(not that I advocate drunken driving.)
So... The chart... Weak Buying... Weak Selling... Same story. as yesterday... It's neutral... and the indexes are neutral..
I suspect we will find a lack of buying at the close.
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
I guess we get a post.
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17 comments:
Welcome back. Yes, Dennis Neale really needs to be pistol-whipped... give him something to whine about. He prattles on about how his "retirement lost 50% last year" as a preamble to asking his guests what stocks to buy now. First of all, why should I listen to some guy on TV who lst 50% last year? Second of all, if I had lost 50% last year, not only would I STFU, but I would cash out what I have and put the remaining cash in my mattress and get a job at the Speedway gas station down the street.
My rant for the day.
this move is either a greater wedge or a move to 84.5 85....
I suspect the wedge...
but may be worth selling on potential for a "False break out"
Give me your mojo about how we will trade all this stimulus, bad bank news?
I think there is almost no surprise in the NFP... bad will be bad we know... risk to the upside... but looked as an anomaly.
This could just be an aversion phase in a nice base....
I want to run some TA on some of the Health care names...
If you don't mind, give my your list, I'll run those too.
Yup, healthcare is what I've been looking at and trading.
JNJ pretty boring but cheap here. I think a big purchase is being factored in.
My mojo sucks. I keep trying to do fundamental analysis which hasn't worked for a year.
I booked some on FAZ this morning and got out before the recovery. I don't like that play, it moves too fast, but I got lucky.
Also, I like staples and utilities. I think we'll bounce along here for a while, maybe even a few months, which is brutal to play.
Looking at GE as a tell on how the market performs each day. It seems pretty accurate, but I'm sure it won't work forever.
I think instead of an aversion trade we are in a discouragement phase and will bounce along within 5% of a bottom for a while.
Not sure I trust the mini-rally in retail, and I'm looking at a possible short on GPS... what are your thoughts on retail?
LLY had good news after the bell. These health care stocks should continue to do okay despite the rest of the economy and Mamis would predict that they will be the first to recover.
A word of note: XLV is primarily pharmaceuticals and does not have any sole supply or equipment makers in its top holdings. Of course, JNJ is a virtual mutual fund and has consumer products, joints, stents, etc. in addition to drugs.
Adding SYK, MDT and ZMH to your analysis would be helpful. Also, GILD is en fuego.
One other thing: my closed end muni bumped up a lot today and I took some off the table. Another good holding I've had is ARK, which is aprefferred and high yield leveraged closed end fund that got hammered in Oct. and Nov. Some say that the high yield bonds and munis and preferreds will come back first before stocks, and they have been doing okay. Preferreds, (symbol PFF) have been beaten down pretty good.
I just looked at consumer.
many of the big cap non-Cyc looks like it's poised for break out.
I did see... some of the Brewers may have bottomed, just a few days ago.
HOOK / SAM
fdo big look trade-able...
maybe even ERTS
I agree with you that we may just Grind along for a while... so I think it's going to be about stock picking for a while.
As long as we don't get 400 pt declines... maybe the market can heal.
Does seem like maybe we are overbought, and need a correction though..
It's all the bank Preferds that were getting killed..
I'm still close to burn out, so I'll look at more stuff tomorrow.
It's good if I can just keep CNBC from giving me headachs.
But... it looks like BSX has finished pulling back, and may make a new run.
Bank preferreds got killed, but most if not all the bad news should be baked into the preferreds at this point. Some may go to zero, but not that many.
PFF is 12% BAC and Citi preferred and the rest are drug cos, regional banks and insureres. I guess they could all go bankrupt, but then we'd all be a lot worse off.
So let's say the BAC and Citi preferreds get 50 cents on the dollar, the remaining 92% of the preferred stock should be okay. PFF gets a yield of 11.5%, and while I don't chase yield, this gives you some idea of their value.
ARK is a closed end ETF and was trading at a deep discount to it's NAV until recently. I've been in since 2.00 to 2.10 and it's up to 2.80. kicks off a 15% div (was like 22% when I bought it). Now I'm looking for the exit as the stock market is bottoming... ie, within 5% of bottom.
BSX is good play. Also, consider health insurers UNH, AET, etc. I think they went up today when Daschle bowed out of Obama's cabinet... nationalized health care is in shambles and these insurance cos can keep raking in the money.
looks like we have a podcast, from t and p.
I have to walk, so I have it loaded in the MP3... and we will see what she has to say....
I've been walking a ton... Too much being closed in for the past 3 months.
Great podcast. History of the 1720 deflation seems pertinent today.
Interestingly, the only consumer non-discretionary on T.Lo's list is PG and it's a beauty contest "loser." The health insurers made the list as winners: HUM, AET and UNH.
Consolidation... should break out one way or the other.
http://tinyurl.com/b6pj8v
We just need a catalyst and I doubt NFP will be it.
we need to look for tech breakouts... and ERTS comes to mind.. and chips
So.. we had 3 up days, then 2 sell off days. So tomorrow probably still up..
I'll try and get a chart in tomorrow.
But we should test the downtrend, then have 2 days of selling(NFP catalyst)... Thursday-friday? friday-monday? retest the low trend.
Working on a few charts:
http://kalamazoopost.blogspot.com/2009/02/good-bad-and-ugly.html
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