Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.

J. P. Morgan

"Sell down to your sleeping point"

Monday, February 9, 2009

Futures

I was just checking them... I imagine the futures will be more ... Rational in the morning...

and by that I just mean that..

If I think back, I remember when +/- 50 was big news... and the DOW was at 13000. +/- 100 was very rare and very big news...

Let us remember that we are at 8000... so relatively speaking, its more like the futures range Percentage wise is the difference between .7% and 1.5%... which is twice the volatility. Let us also realize we haven't had a +/- 1.5% day but once every other week over the past month... So when it shows up in the futures, it's surprising, and let me say Irrational.

All I'm getting at is that, the futures need to calm the fuck down. 200pts is big at this level.. more like 400 a year ago, and we just aren't going to get that big a move. That and it just seems like the futures don't seem to take into account the immense size of a 70 pt move at this level.... that and traders haven't seen these levels in 12 years..

It's also interesting that the market may not want to anticipate a rally, or maybe it does and the futures don't.

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