Yesterday Let me just be clear "I was looking for a bounce." There is a chance some of the Less challenged banks will get a post earnings bounce, and as we decline(if we decline), we will get some range bound action.
Like I said 6 months ago, City is a disaster, in fact I projected failure in Jan.... I won't be surprised to see nationalization, and possible liquidation, and for there to be a "Bad bank" built out of the remains... if not Nationalization and those assets be scooped up by the Federal Gov.
But... Some charts.
XLF here is daily, Volume can be misleading. I don't have anything here. I can say we looked oversold yesterday and due for a bounce. Volume contracted, which confirms that I was correct in thinking that, regardless of what happens. If we do get a lower open, I'll ponder playing a short term bounce(hours). I didn't draw it but there is an Elliot wave here. that went wave 5 yesterday. Low volume another confirmation there.
Here is the hourly.... Tuesday's high volume, Limited sell off volume through Monday...could hint at a Flag or pennant. Again sort of a wave 4 wave 5 situation.
NTRS, I don't have the daily, but there was some declining volume, we do have a breakout of the trade channel on increased volume. It's not a great EW but there is one.
BBT, There is a decent Wedge here, there is some indication of lower volume on the sell off. Even with a lower open this morning it just resolves the wedge.... In fact I may play this this morning.
Point is... If the leadership can lead...Before earnings, we may get some decent bounce in the next couple days, giving us a possible bounce over the next few days.
There may be some reduced pressure on the Euro now that the ECB has cut, that could also give some upward momentum for materials... adding to the momentum.
it's something.
Financial history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. You can't be stupid enough to trade off anything I say.... I'm lucky they let me out of the straight-jacket long enough to trade.
J. P. Morgan
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Some quick looks
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