this just to be an aversion stage before that last leg up.. Just enough to convince the Jeff Macke's of the world to take a beating on the short side, and help this next leg up...
It's messed up to think that in front of the NFP....
so who knows
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
bulls want
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4 comments:
The market has absorbed a lot of bad news. Will it absorb NFP, too? How bad can it be... what's the estimate? How much is baked in?
The market seems to be okay with a pull back not even to the 38% retracement. Technically, isn't this a healthy pull back?
All great questions, I have yet to look into the nfp...
As part of game theory, players have been burned playing the NFP as a pull back the last 2 times, so I think people will be cautious about trading it.... Point being NFP has been a buying opportunity the last 2 times.. So... you have to know, that.... Everybody will know that... and try and game it... So.. NFP may be just a dip to buy... the spookier thing is Warning season into earnings season... Like an idiot I'm not sure when it starts.. Even though we are getting some Early Warnings already.
You know how I hate all the oil and materials plays... and that has been much of the stregnth in the past days, and we have seen weakness in everything else.... What I'm hoping is that the rest for the market can be support.
But this morning I'm looking at health care....
I think the real sellers will be cautious until 1000spx or so, which fits some of the T.Lo if->then
Good to hear from you.
consensus on the nfp is -500K
previous was -550K
hmmm, seems more probable that we will just muddle here through friday, No new sellers, and no buyers willing to take a risk until that number comes out.
sounds like capitulation on my part..
We will see what happens
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