Rate of change on the SPY

Here is your Scatter Graph

See it?

lets add some lines for the Impaired.

I even added a 3 and 5 dma.

Admittedly the Friday move has the rate of change in a steady .4 ish move up over the past 5 day period.

But here is the money.

This is a Statistical Forecast/Model of the SPY.

It's impossible to forecast the massive swings, but if you look at the 5dma vs the 5dma of the actul it's close... of course Like I said Friday was very outside the model but it's close I'd expect the market to Mean Revert and look more like the model over the next 3 days.

The model if you notice "Forecasts" out 6 days ahead. If you notice the Actual market data stops on friday and the forecast moves out 6 days....

Don't ask me why I for casted it out 6 days.

And ... Since you aren't a moron, you know that the further out in time you forecast, the more errors you get.

If you want the numbers

The forecast for monday is a +.03 and the 5dma of the forcast is +.04

Now the actual 5dma of the Rate of change is +.48

Hmmm well I bet we could also run the Marin of error.

But excuse me if I use the 5dma for that.